Theaters are in for a big one. Four wide releases are trying to knock Zach Cregger's "Resident Evil" off the top spot, and as many as five films could gross $20M or more this Friday through Sunday. That would make this the best late-September weekend since 2018, when all films combined for $106.4M.
"Resident Evil" topped last weekend with $61 million and grossed an estimated $3.31M on Thursday from 3,684 locations, bringing its domestic total to roughly $80M. Thursday's number points to $25M second weekend.
That opens the door for a movie released seven years ago. "Avengers: Endgame: Encore" pulled in $3.8 million from Thursday previews. Strong presales could make it frontloaded, but it now looks headed for about $30M and a real shot at #1. That's an insane number for a re-release whose only new material is a few extra minutes of deleted scenes.
A24's "Primetime" posted a solid $2.7M in previews. The Robert Pattinson-starring film, a zeitgeisty riff on "To Catch a Predator," has had trailers and clips going viral all over social media. Tracking had it around $20M, but Thursday suggests the online buzz is actually translating into ticket sales, and $25M is now in play. On a $15M budget, this is another easy win for A24.
Paramount's Brad Pitt-led survival film "Heart of the Beast" earned $2M Thursday. It’s looking at $20M this weekend. At 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, it's the best-reviewed film of David Ayer's career. It will need to hold well, though, given its $85M production budget.
Finally, Universal and DreamWorks Animation's "Forgotten Island" took in $1.48M in previews. Its very good reviews (97% on Rotten Tomatoes) suggest $20M isn't out of reach. On an $80M budget, it will need legs to break even, but it now has a real shot at a Best Animated Feature Oscar nomination.
September usually belongs to the slow stretch between summer and the holidays, but with an unusually crowded slate and five films projected at $15M or more, this weekend is shaping up to be great for exhibitors.
The film will stream for free, worldwide, on The Guardian's website in late November. That's a bold distribution move, and it tells you exactly what the filmmakers want here. They want eyeballs, as many as possible.