This was supposed to be Tom Cruise's year. Iñárritu, a big serious role, the kind of swing that would finally get voters to see him as more than the guy who does his own crazy stunts. Then "Digger" screened and critics split right down the middle. The pundits noticed fast.
He's still in the top five, maybe six, depending on who you ask, and that's mostly goodwill. The industry likes Cruise. He saved summer moviegoing a few years ago (just ask Spielberg), he got his Honorary Oscar, and he goes all in on "Digger." Can goodwill get him nominated when the reviews are all over the place, and the momentum is going the wrong way? It’s doable, and I currently have him as my #5, but this year's Best Actor race is very crowded.
At the top, it's John Malkovich's to lose. He is a lock for Martin McDonagh's "Wild Horse Nine.” He's only been nominated twice, for "Places in the Heart" and "In the Line of Fire," both in supporting, so this would be his first lead nod. A late-career Malkovich comeback in a McDonagh movie? I'm all for it.
I said it back in Venice: this might be the best performance of his career, and that includes "In the Line of Fire" and "Dangerous Liaisons." He plays Chris, a worn-down CIA agent on Easter Island right before the '73 Chilean coup, a guy who jokes about his body count with an easy cowboy charm while quietly falling apart. He can say more with a grumble than most actors can with a full monologue, and he takes McDonagh's usual material somewhere much deeper.
Right behind him is Matt Damon for "The Odyssey." He already has two lead nominations ("Good Will Hunting," "The Martian"), and Nolan's movie is big enough to carry him. It made over a billion dollars, the biggest hit of Nolan's career and of Damon's, and he's the one holding the whole three-hour thing together as Odysseus.
The one to watch is Andrew Scott, who has jumped 22% with experts and now sits at No. 3 on Gold Derby. He plays Ian Charleson in "Elsinore," the actor who played Hamlet while dying of AIDS, and these are the best reviews he's ever gotten. He's never been nominated. That's about to change.
I'm sure Ryan Gosling gets in. "Project Hail Mary" came out in the spring, which got him in the conversation early, and the movie was a big enough hit to carry him through a strong campaign this fall. He won't win. The other three are too far ahead. But for him, the nomination is the win.
Just outside the five and moving up is Robert Pattinson, who plays Chris Hansen in "Primetime." He's spent ten years picking weird, risky, interesting projects, and this feels like his best shot yet at a first nod. Also in the mix for that last spot are Pedro Pascal ("Behemoth!"), Anthony Ippolito ("I Play Rocky"), John Turturro ("The Only Living Pickpocket in New York") and Jaafar Jackson ("Michael").
Quentin Tarantino doesn't usually put modern-day filmmakers on his level. That’s just how he is. David Fincher seems to be the one exception.