It’s July. The temperature’s hot, the release calendar is dry—at least until next weekend—and yet Gold Derby’s 30 or so “experts” have officially unveiled their early predictions for Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars. You’d be forgiven for rolling your eyes—awards season is still half a year away—but a closer look at these early odds reveals what might already be shaping the conversation.
Having “The Odyssey” at #1 feels like both a conviction that the reviews will be great and a belief that Nolan can earn his second consecutive Best Picture winner. Gold Derby has a habit of locking in early on the prestige pick it believes should win before the real race even begins. This is no exception, and quite honestly, looking at the fall slate of films ahead, it’s very plausible this could happen.
It makes perfect sense for “The Odyssey” to sit comfortably at #1—if it’s both a commercial and critical success, it’ll be nearly impossible for it not to become the frontrunner.
Hot on Nolan’s heels is Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s “Project Hail Mary,” a tried-and-tested commercial and critical darling. Sci-fi isn’t always the Academy’s thing, but when it comes packaged in feel-good sentiment, much like “The Martian,” voters tend to be won over. It’s practically a given that, at the very least, “Project Hail Mary” will make it into the final ten nominees for the big prize.
Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s “Digger” (#3) is also getting plenty of early mentions. It’s an auteur-driven vehicle built around Tom Cruise’s central performance, and Iñárritu has had three of his last five films nominated for Best Picture. Will voters embrace this mysterious film? Warner Bros. has done a good job keeping it under wraps, but with its October release approaching, they’ll have to show us the goods. This film’s success will depend on its execution, rollout, and, most importantly, reviews. It’s apparently taking the “One Battle After Another” route and skipping the fall festivals.
Don’t be surprised if Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” (#5) cracks the final ten nominees. Fresh off a Palme d’Or win and arriving at a time when its culture-war themes continue to resonate, the film carries both artistic weight and political urgency. The same goes for “La Bola Negra” (#17), which won Best Director at Cannes, where it was acquired by Netflix and, as it stands, will be the streamer’s main awards horse.
Then there are a handful of films that have yet to premiere. Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine” (#4) and Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut” await fall festival screenings following positive test screenings earlier this year.
And would you look at that—“Obsession” is at #9. The narrative would be irresistible for Academy voters: a film made for under $750,000 becoming a full-blown cultural phenomenon. Focus will be campaigning hard for “Obsession.” It won’t win Best Picture, but a nomination alone would be seen as a huge victory. Horror has historically faced challenges with the Academy, but films like “Get Out,” “The Substance,” and “The Silence of the Lambs” show that genre barriers can be overcome when a film breaks through culturally.
Watch out for “The Invite” (#10). Olivia Wilde’s chamber piece is an ode to failed marriage, and its shattering final 20 minutes are what will convince voters that this is more than just a cringe relationship comedy. Based on the abundantly positive word of mouth, I’m starting to believe this film could not only earn a Best Picture nomination but also contend in the acting and screenplay categories.
There are still plenty of films yet to be released. We’ll be keeping a close eye on “Behemoth!” and “The Social Reckoning,” as well as any out-of-left-field surprises.
Of course, these early odds are speculative at best, with only three of the ten films having screened. That said, Gold Derby often becomes an echo chamber, with experts picking what they think the Academy should vote for, and this year’s early list reflects a more international, risk-tolerant Academy, which checks out.
For now, the frontrunners are auteurs, indies, and intellectual dramas. The Academy, post-COVID and post-Netflix glut, still seems to want a Best Picture winner that feels important—but importance doesn’t always win. Timing does.
