‘Moana’ Is Heading Toward a Box Office Bomb After $4M+ Thursday, $38M+ Opening Projection

You thought “Supergirl” or “Masters of the Universe” would be the biggest flops of the summer? Think again.

Disney’s live-action “Moana” is shaping up to be a disaster for the Mouse House. Despite the strength of the franchise—which began with the 2016 animated hit and grew into a billion-dollar property with “Moana 2” in 2024—the remake made just $4.5M on Thursday and is now expected to open to $38M or more this weekend.

That’s a disappointing outlook for a film reportedly carrying a whopping $250M budget, especially given Disney’s apparent confidence in the brand.

The film currently holds a 36% score on Rotten Tomatoes and a 42 on Metacritic, but audience reactions from yesterday’s screenings appear to be positive. Still, that might not be enough to move the needle or improve its projections. Disney could be looking at very heavy losses on this one.

Directed as a largely faithful, shot-for-shot adaptation of the animated original, the film stars Catherine Lagaʻaia as Moana, with Dwayne Johnson returning as Maui. Its performance will inevitably be compared to Disney’s live-action “Snow White,” which may ultimately end up with a higher opening weekend ($42M) than “Moana.”

No, really—Rachel Zegler is the big winner here. Unlike “Snow White,” many people were predicting “Moana” would hit the billion-dollar mark in their early box office forecasts. What happened? Did Disney simply oversaturate the brand to the point where audiences lost interest? The studio stands to lose hundreds of millions on this one.

Maybe it really is a case of milking the brand until audiences caught on to the grift. It’s hard to understand the logic behind remaking a film that debuted only 10 years ago—especially when its sequel arrived just two years ago. To top it off, “Moana 3” was announced just a week ago. It’s a mind-boggling example of oversaturating a brand.