‘Supergirl’ Is on Track to Become One of the Biggest Box Office Bombs of the Century — $160M+ in Losses?

The failure of “Supergirl” is all anybody wants to talk about, and for good reason. A $37M domestic opening and $63M worldwide against a $186M budget mean a heavy loss for Warner Bros.

Of course, Warner Bros., well known for spinning numbers to the trades, much like it did with “Superman” and “One Battle After Another,” is now, quite laughably, telling them that “Supergirl” only needs to make $300M–$315M to break even, which is absolutely ridiculous and not based in any sort of reality. Even if we were to believe Warner Bros., “Supergirl” would still not come close to hitting the $300M mark, as most of the trades project it to stall at a lifetime gross of $200M to $210M globally.

Warner Bros. muddying the waters—telling Variety the break-even point is $300M, then telling The Wrap it’s $315M, and then whispering to THR that it’s actually $275M—will not help shape any positive narrative out of the hole it has dug for itself with DC Studios chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran.

There seems to be confusion about today’s contradictory reporting on how much money “Supergirl” actually stands to lose, and that’s precisely what Warner Bros. wants. No one definitive figure—just muddy the waters. Make the mess purposely messier. With every trade being fed different numbers, the result is Deadline projecting $125M in losses, Variety saying $100M, and The Wrap putting it at $85M. It’s actually none of the above, and far worse than any of those claime.

And anyone who can do math knows all three projections are low. Realistically—and I’m feeling generous here—instead of using the tried-and-true 2.5x rule, I’ll simply take the budget ($186M) and multiply it by two, which gives us a $372M break-even point (even though it’s likely much higher). With the projected $210M gross “Supergirl” is expected to earn—which will likely be much less—that leaves Warner Bros. facing $162M in losses on this film. And that’s me being generous, giving them a break, when we all know the actual number will be even higher.

That generous $162M loss would place “Supergirl” among the top seven or eight biggest money losers of the 21st century, inflation notwithstanding. The only films that have lost more money: “John Carter” ($250M), “The Lone Ranger” ($240M), “The Marvels” ($230M), “Strange World” ($200M), “Joker: Folie a Deux” ($200M), “Mortal Engines” ($160M+), and “Snow White” ($150M+).

That’s how disastrous “Supergirl” has become for Gunn, Safran, and Warner Bros. The sheer magnitude of this debacle will be talked about for years to come, and could have lasting consequences for DC Studios.