Six days to go until the Oscars, and the Best Supporting Actress race is still a complete mess. Seriously, what the hell is going on here?
Most years, by this point in the season, there’s at least a semi-frontrunner. Not this time. Instead, we’ve got one of the most fractured races in recent memory, with three contenders entering the final stretch with almost identical momentum.
Right now, the biggest statistical advantage belongs to Amy Madigan for her unhinged performance as Aunt Gladys in “Weapons.” Madigan has already picked up the SAG Award and the Critics Choice Award. Those two wins matter, but especially SAG. Historically speaking, 16 of the last 17 Supporting Actress winners at SAG went on to win the Oscar.
There’s a reason the SAG Awards tend to align with the Academy in the acting races. Actors make up the largest branch of the Academy, and SAG’s membership overlaps heavily with Oscar voters. When SAG rallies behind a performance, it usually reflects the kind of broad support among actors that can easily carry over to the Academy Awards.
And yet, nothing about this race has been straightforward. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for her performance in “One Battle After Another,” while Wunmi Mosaku picked up the BAFTA for her work in “Sinners.” Three major precursors, three different winners. That’s typically a recipe for chaos.
Further complicating things, “Sinners” also won the SAG Award for Best Ensemble Cast. While Mosaku lost the individual Supporting Actress prize to Madigan, the ensemble win still signals strong enthusiasm for the film within the acting branch, and alongside clear UK support with the BAFTA win, it means something.
Still, given SAG’s near-perfect track record in this category, Madigan’s victory there carries enormous weight. Her performance in “Weapons” is also appealing across generational lines. Older voters seem eager to reward a long and respected career, while the film, and its performance, is tailor-made for younger voters
If you’re looking at this race purely through the lens of stats — and are willing to trust SAG’s history — then Madigan is probably the safest bet to take the Oscar.