SAG Awards: Michael B. Jordan Wins Best Actor! ‘Sinners’ Wins Ensemble! Amy Madigan and Sean Penn Win Supporting!

As you might already know, SAG (aka the actors) is a strong precursor. There’s a significant amount of overlap between SAG acting winners and the Oscars, with the stat sitting at roughly an 80% match.

This means that tonight’s SAG winners could be a strong indicator of what’s coming at the Oscars. While nothing is guaranteed, history shows that the Academy often follows the lead of their peers in the acting branch, making these results especially telling.

What we learned tonight: the industry’s acting contingent really loves “Sinners.” Ryan Coogler’s historical vampire film took home two awards, including the widely predicted Outstanding Ensemble prize. If “One Battle After Another” has any competition to worry about in the Best Picture race, it’s definitely “Sinners.”

The biggest mystery of the evening was whether Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) could win Lead Actor, especially after his outlandish “Marty Supreme” campaign, which was criticized in some circles as being a bit too much. Turns out, he lost — Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) surprised absolutely everyone tonight. Is he now the Oscar frontrunner? What?

Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) won Lead Actress. Add this trophy to her recent Critics Choice, Golden Globe and BAFTA wins. This is the most locked acting Oscar — the Academy might as well start engraving her name now. As much as I’d love to see the very deserving Rose Byrne win for her brilliant work in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” it’s just not going to happen.

Supporting Actress is a hot mess this year — the most unpredictable acting category. Amy Madigan won for “Weapons,” and now folks who thought this race was between Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) are scratching their heads. The fact remains: Madigan gave the best and most delirious performance of the five nominated actresses — she deserves the Oscar.

Sean Penn won Best Supporting Actor for “One Battle After Another,” and is now in the lead to win his third Oscar. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t there to accept the trophy. He did make an appearance at the Golden Globes, where he was caught smoking at his table—proof that, as a committed chain-smoker, Penn probably had no desire to sit through another three-hour awards show without a cigarette.

OUTSTANDING ENSEMBLE

“Sinners”

BEST ACTOR

Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”)

STUNT ENSEMBLE

Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning

BEST ENSEMBLE IN DRAMA SERIES

“The Pitt”

CAST ENSEMBLE IN COMEDY SERIES

“The Studio”

ACTOR IN TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

Owen Cooper (“Adolescence”)

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Noah Wyle (“The Pitt”)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Catherine O’Hara (“The Studio”)

BEST ACTRESS IN TV/LIMITED SERIES

Michelle Williams (“Dying for Sex”)

BEST ACTOR IN COMEDY SERIES

Seth Rogen (“The Studio”)

BEST ACTRESS IN DRAMA SERIES

Keri Russell (“The Diplomat”)