Report: ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Struggling to Break Even? Hit $1.4B Mark, But Has Yet to Make A Profit

A Variety piece about “Avatar: Fire and Ash” mirrors a recent conversation I had with a colleague about the future of the franchise.

First off, the numbers. The film has earned $390M domestically, whereas the last one, ‘The Way of Water,’ earned $688M. That’s a noticeable dip. The worldwide tally sits at $1.43 billion, compared with its predecessor’s astounding $2.2 billion.

This shouldn’t take away from the fact that ‘Fire and Ash’ still earned well over $1 billion, but Variety notes that Disney spent $500M+ to produce and market the film. Add in theatrical exhibitors taking half the box office receipts, and the film isn’t as profitable as its earnings might suggest.

Furthermore, and most intriguingly, the trade cites a quote from Cameron in which he describes his Avatar movies as the “worst business case in movie history,” noting that their break-even points tend to roughly be $1.5 billion. Taking his word for it, this means that ‘Fire and Ash’ has yet to break even, though it “will recoup costs” whenever it hits Disney+ and other avenues.

Disney had initially committed to two more Avatar installments, slated for 2029 and 2031, but the studio doesn’t have any contractual obligation to proceed with them.

The question now is: given the franchise is clearly slipping in popularity—with ‘Fire and Ash’ earning $900M less than its predecessor—is it wise to invest another $500M if the trajectory is downward?

So why was ‘Fire and Ash’ less successful? Some might argue that the 197-minute runtime was too much, and that the film struggled to distinguish itself from its predecessor, echoing familiar story beats without delivering the technological leaps that made the first two cinematic events. Industry observers also point to the unusually short turnaround between the films—just three years—contrasting sharply with the decade-plus gap that preceded previous sequels.

If ‘Avatar 4’ comes to pass in 2029, it would only be four years after ‘Fire and Ash,’ which may not allow enough time for the franchise to breathe and for audiences to rebuild excitement. It certainly doesn’t help that Cameron would turn 75 by then, and with the clock ticking, he might not get to pursue some of his other passion projects.

The only possible solution I see is for Cameron to scale down the budget for ‘Avatar 4,’something he has already acknowledged. But can these movies actually be made more cheaply and still maintain technological credibility? That remains the million-dollar question.