Oscars: Is ‘Weapons’ the Surprise Best Picture Contender of 2025?

We’re almost eight months into the year, and just a single potential Best Picture nominee has been released: “Sinners.” That’s it.

Of course, some would-be contenders were screened at Cannes — I’m thinking mostly of “Sentimental Value.” Otherwise, some Oscar pundits, hungry for contenders, have been stretching it a bit, name-checking “F1” and “28 Years Later.”

Here’s another: The Playlist’s Gregory Elwood is adding “Weapons” to the mix, albeit very cautiously, and only if the drought of contenders continues into the fall. He’s not the only journalist mentioning Zach Cregger’s film, which is very much genre — but so is “Sinners,” and some folks currently have it winning (!) Best Picture.

Oscar voters have proven they can expand their tastes into genre. Just last year, “The Substance” defied the odds and made it to the dance, with multiple above-the-line noms. Let us also not forget “Get Out,” another acclaimed word-of-mouth blockbuster that earned Academy love.

Over the last decade, the makeup of the Academy’s voting body has shifted dramatically, mostly in response to the industry-wide push for inclusion. More importantly, though, there’s been a generational shift. While the Academy still skews older, the new wave of members includes way more younger and adventurous voters, which, for example, opened the door to “Everything Everywhere All at Once” “Parasite,” and “Anora” winning the big prize.

With all that in mind, why shouldn’t we consider “Weapons”? Who cares if it wasn’t initially positioned as an Oscar hopeful — I’d rather see surprises hit Oscar noms than the usual suspects we expect to get recognized.

The film’s box-office run and critical reception have changed the conversation. The film is about to cross $100M domestically and looks headed toward $200M+ worldwide, while sitting pretty at 94% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic. Those numbers alone make it a contender, even if Warner Bros. didn’t plan for it.

So now Warner Bros., already in the thick of awards season with “Sinners” — which is looking like a legit Best Picture frontrunner — and Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” must have their campaign strategists grinding their teeth. At the very least, Amy Madigan’s transformative supporting turn in “Weapons” will certainly gain traction, which could pave the way for other above-the-line categories.

The real question is whether WB wants to push it. That said, when the film starts showing up on year-end critics’ lists, Warner Bros. might not have a choice. It’s the kind of breakout original hit that Oscar voters love to rally behind, whether the studio wants it or not.