‘Ballerina’ Struggling With Projected $25M Opening Weekend

The John Wick universe just took its first major stumble. Ana de Armas-led “Ballerina,” a spin-off of the Keanu Reeves-led franchise, underperformed and is expected to land a soft $25M domestic opening weekend.

While the numbers might not be catastrophic, the production budget was $90M, expectations were notably higher for the first cinematic expansion of a billion-dollar franchise.

So, what happened?

A series of missteps, actually. Chief among them might be Lionsgate’s bafflingly late review embargo, which gave the perception that the movie is a stinker (via Deadline).

One film finance source yelled at me yesterday about the less-than-expected Ballerina performance, “If their exits were so great, why the hell was the review embargo lift so late?!” The review embargo lift was on Wednesday, June 4, the day before previews began.

Early viewers actually seem to be enjoying the film, especially its explosive third act, which to my eyes, saved the film from mediocrity. Yet, the film received an impressive A- on CinemaScore, which points towards moviegoing audiences having been satisfied by the experience of seeing the film.

Still, for many, “Ballerina” was always going to be a tough sell. The absence of Keanu Reeves in a lead capacity was a sticking point. “Ballerina” might have been doomed not by quality, but by concept. In a franchise that lives and breathes via Reeves’ Wick, a female-led spin-off was always going to be a risk — just look at last year’s “Furiosa.”

The muted opening has already raised questions about the future of the franchise’s expansion. Lionsgate had grand ambitions of building out the ‘John ‘Wick universe— “The Continental” on Peacock was one piece, “Ballerina” another—but now those plans may be paused, or at least reevaluated.

Ultimately, Ballerina’s $25M debut tells a familiar story in modern franchise filmmaking: spin-offs need more than brand recognition—they need a compelling reason to exist.