In the streaming era, it’s difficult for many to gauge what’s a hit movie. We can take Netflix’s numbers, which evaluates views and hours, and point towards any top 10 list they give us as gospel, but maybe that isn’t the best idea.
Kevin Costner has decided to side with the Netflix algorithm, which recently had ‘Horizon’ as the most streamed film in January, on any platform, with over 40M hours watched. Costner spoke with Decider about the film’s streaming success.
“I think it’s interesting that the movie came out six months ago and people are still finding it with little push from anywhere. It’s out there. It’s standing amongst the biggest movies of the year and it was streamed more than them,” he told Decider at the Santa Barbara International Fest Festival. “It tells me that people want to go places in their heart and their mind.”
Costner’s words echo, although not as hyperbolically, Zack Snyder’s 2023 claim that his failed ‘Rebel Moon,’ which topped the Netflix charts, was seen by more people than “Barbie.”
You think about Netflix, for instance, where you push a button […] ‘Rebel Moon,’ right? Say right now it’s almost at 90 million views, right? 80 or 90 million accounts turned it on, give or take. They assume two viewers per screening, right? That’s the kind of math. So you think if that movie was in the theater as a distribution model, that’s like 160,000,000 people supposedly watching based on that math. 160,000,000 people at $10 a ticket would be…what is that math? I don’t know. 160,000,000 times ten. That’s 1.6 billion. So more people probably saw ‘Rebel Moon’ than saw ‘Barbie’ in the theater, right?
How do you distinguish between theatrical and streaming success? Yes, ‘Rebel Moon,’ which clocked in at close to 3 hours, has earned over 100M hours watched to date, but how many people actually saw it from beginning to end? Netflix refuses to divulge these numbers, and the same question could be asked about Costner’s ‘Horizon.’
In reality, the well has dried up for Costner, who can’t seem to find money to make Chapters 3 and 4. If the film was “one of the biggest” of 2024 then why is it struggling to be completed?
There is currently no release date for ‘Horizon: Chapter 2,’ which was pulled from Warner Bros’ summer schedule after the first instalment, which cost $110M, failed to lure an audience into theaters, earning just $29M domestically. ‘Chapter 2’ did end up world premiering at the Venice Film Festival in September, albeit to weak reviews which further complicated matters for potential distribution. Netflix is now the only (and smartest) option for Costner.