It’s time for our last Best Picture spitball of the year. Let’s tackle the latest odds in the race. Hard to believe, but we’re only one month away from Oscar nominations being announced. With so many critics’ awards already out and every contending film screened, we have a mostly clear picture.
The last two contenders screened since our early November update are “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” both of which have received mixed reviews from critics. That doesn’t mean either—or both—won’t get nominated, but the outlook is much dicier for these films. It has happened before that films receiving mixed reviews from critics earned a Best Picture nomination, and in a year that’s failed to deliver much competition, it wouldn’t surprise me if both make it.
We also cannot ignore the freefall that “Hamnet” is currently on. What started as a bona fide contender at Telluride and TIFF, with glowing reviews and audience acclaim, has quickly dissipated in recent weeks. Turns out, many critics aren’t actually on board this film, and think pieces have been everywhere, slamming the film as manipulative and uninvolving. Still, it’ll likely get nominated—“Hamnet” has enough champions to secure some recognition—but it probably won’t win.
If anything, it’s now shaping up as a two-way race for Best Picture.
Most awards-season “experts” will tell you that Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is the current frontrunner, but as with any year, momentum can change in an instant. Although PTA’s film is the clear critical darling of 2025, that doesn’t always translate to an automatic Oscar win.
With that in mind, the film with the best chance at an upset? It’s looking increasingly likely that Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” will be the main rival. While “One Battle After Another” keeps winning critics’ awards and topping every poll, “Sinners” has been, peculiarly, gaining momentum in recent weeks.
It certainly helps that Coogler’s campaigning has been indelibly likable — it seems as though everyone has been talking about him these last few weeks. “Sinners,” despite having been released very early in the year, has remained in people’s minds all this time. Its box office success has also become a prime example of how an original, non-IP movie can still make money.
“Sinners” also checks nearly every box the Academy seems desperate to fill these days. It’s a rare blend of commercial success and critical acclaim, tackling weighty, timely themes rooted in racial injustice—the exact kind of topical resonance voters have favored in the post-“Moonlight” era. I wouldn’t count it out at all — in fact, the race is much closer than you might think.
Of course, it makes sense for Gold Derby’s experts to still have “One Battle After Another” at #1. It’s the most acclaimed film of the year, and has the season’s most compelling narrative, which might be Paul Thomas Anderson finally winning an Oscar. PTA has yet to claim a statuette, and the idea of honoring him now mirrors the way the Academy eventually recognized Scorsese for “The Departed.”
As it stands, I have seven films locked for Best Picture: “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Marty Supreme,” “Sentimental Value,” “Hamnet,” “Frankenstein,” and “It Was Just An Accident.”
Watch out for “Train Dreams,” a film that came out of nowhere this fall, seducing festival audiences and critics alike with its emotionally resonant Malickian beats. It’s currently #8 on Gold Derby, and that’s a fair assessment. All it needs now is a PGA nomination, and it’ll be locked up. There’s certainly a ton of passion for this film.
The #9 and #10 slots are currently impossible to predict. “Wicked: For Good” might be there. Kleber Mendonca Filho’s “The Secret Agent” is winning over the Academy’s international voting body. Maybe “Avatar: Fire and Ash” makes a case if the box office exceeds expectations. Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” is kind of just there—not much real passion, but given the weak year, still a contender. Then there’s Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” barely making a dent on Netflix at the moment, but well-liked in the industry for its movie-business story.
So yes, nomination ballots aren’t due until January 16. That’s just over two months away—an eternity in awards campaigning. Every season has scandals, hiccups, and unexpected turns. Drama is part of the game, whether anyone wants it or not.
