James Cameron Says ‘Avatar 3' Has to “Make A Lot of Money" For the Franchise to Continue

If you’re sick and tired of ‘Avatar,’ there’s hope! For the franchise to continue, the upcoming third film will need to earn more than just $1 billion at the box office for the franchise to live another day.

Speaking to Variety, Cameron never stops reminding us that he operates on a different playing field than anyone else in Hollywood. With “Avatar: The Way of Water” heading back into theaters for a quick re-release before “Avatar: Fire & Ash” drops this December, the director is telling us that assuming Avatar 4 and 5 are happening is wrong. The numbers have to work.

Do we make any money with “Avatar 3”? I mean, we’ll make some money. But the question is, what kind of a profit margin, if any, is there, and how much of an inducement is that to continue on in this universe? Or maybe we wait a while until we figure out how to bring costs down.

In another interview with the CrewCall podcast, Cameron again admitted that “Avatar 4” and “Avatar 5” aren’t guaranteed, pointing to how costly it is to make these films.

We spend a lot of money on these movies, and that’s kind of the banquet that we put before a global audience for the same ticket price as seeing some little indie. But the quid pro quo with that is we have to make a lot of money in order to continue.

Cameron also admitted the theatrical landscape just isn’t what it used to be. COVID gutted the box office, audiences never fully came back, and streaming rewired the culture. For him, the jury is still out on whether the old model can even support the massive resources that ‘Avatar’ demands. And while he’s already mapped out what happens if he gets to 4 and 5—including a storyline that finally lands us back on Earth—there’s a giant, underlined “if” hovering over the whole enterprise.

That being said, Cameron isn’t leaving audiences with a dangling middle chapter. He insists that ‘Fire & Ash’ will deliver a proper climax, while still leaving the door open for more if the global audience shows up.

Now, there’s really been no confirmation as to how much ‘Fire & Ash’ actually cost. Some reports had ‘The Way of Water’ budget going as high as $460M to produce, and that’s not including its massive marketing spend. Of course, that film ended up defying all expectations by earning $2.3 billion worldwide.

So, yeah, sure, I’m quietly hoping ‘Way of the Water’ makes $1 billion instead of $2 billion, because I want Cameron to go back to making non-Pandora movies—more specifically, ‘Ghosts of Hiroshima.’ Imagine Cameron tackling something intimate, harrowing, and human after spending decades in a world of fluggy mountains and bioluminescent oceans.