Oscars: Is ‘Anora' Our Best Picture Frontrunner?

What a strange start to the fall movie season. Toronto, Telluride and Venice are now in the books, and the Oscar race for Best Picture is still very much wide open. The Golden Lion at Venice went to a film nobody expected to win (“The Room Next Door”) and the Toronto winner (“The Life of Chuck”) still has no U.S. distribution.

However, two notable and certifiable Best Picture nominees did premiere at the fall fests: “Conclave,” and “The Brutalist.” It’s hard to imagine both of these films not gaining major traction in the months ahead. As for the rest, we’re still not sure what to make of “The Room Next Door,” “Saturday Night,” and “The Piano Lesson.”

Meanwhile, in terms of Best Picture, you can forget about any Academy love being thrown towards “Nightbitch,” “Maria,” “The End,” “The Last Showgirl,” “We Live in Time,” “On Swift Horses,” and “Unstoppable.”

The biggest surprise of the fall so far has got to be Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” — a searing late-career statement from the iconic British filmmaker. After having been rejected by Cannes, Venice and Telluride, “Hard Truths,” surprisingly, found passionate acclaim at TIFF. It’s now very much in the race, and its star, Marianne Jean-Baptiste could also get nominated.

If anything, what became clearer by the day is TIFF and Telluride accentuating the momentum for Cannes darlings “Anora” and “Emilia Perez.” Both films might very well be our #1 and #2, respectively, in the Oscar race. They played incredibly well at both North American fests and are now practically locked to get nominated.

With that said, I firmly believe that “Anora,” which already won the Palme d’Or, finished second in TIFF voting and triumphed at Telluride, is our current frontrunner to win the big prize. No other film comes close.

You might be asking, what about TIFF prizewinner “The Life of Chuck”? Having seen the film, I’m not entirely convinced that it’s a contender. I attended the world premiere screening, which had the Princess of Wales theater loudly applauding as the credits rolled, but I just don’t see it going far. ‘Chuck’ is a lovely film, one that feels tailor made for an audience-driven festival like TIFF, but you’re going to start seeing more critics coming out against it, and the film still has no U.S. distribution.

Last I heard, and prior to its TIFF win, Jeff Sneider was reporting that Bleecker Street was in the running to acquire ‘Chuck.’ It’s highly likely that after this morning’s win, the asking price has changed, and a much heftier studio will now attempt to acquire the film, but I remain skeptical.

As for Oscar-buzzed films released prior to the fall fest kick-off, “Dune: Part II” is practically a lock to be nominated. Also, despite A24’s botched rollout, there are still plenty of pundits humming praise towards “Sing Sing,” and given how weak the year has been thus far, it might very well sneak in as one of the final ten nominees.

I see there being five films currently locked in Best Picture:

(1) Anora
(2) Emilia Perez
(3) Conclave
(4) Dune: Part Two
(5) The Brutalist

The next five are anybody’s guess… Sing Sing, Hard Truths, Saturday Night, A Real Pain, The Room Next Door, The Piano Lesson, Inside Out 2, The Substance, Challengers, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Babygirl, Civil War, The Apprentice.

Of course, the race is far from over, and we still have around half a dozen unseen films ready to go between October and December, including Steve McQueen’s “Blitz,” Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II,” Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu,” Robert Zemeckis’ “Here,” and Clint Eastwood’s “Juror No. 2.” As for James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” it had a test screening to mixed reactions in late August, then a few weeks later had some reshoots, and test screened again last week, and the reactions weren’t any better.