THR caught me off guard with this projection. They’re saying David Leitch’s “The Fall Guy,” being released 8 days from now, is currently tracking for a $35 million opening. I thought it would be much higher than that, maybe in the 50s.
I emailed our resident box-office guru, a trade journalist who sometimes spills the beans about what he’s been hearing, and he’s confirming the ‘Fall Guy’ number to be accurate — “anywhere between $35-40 million,” he says. They also add that current estimates have ‘Fall Guy’ needing a worldwide gross of $300 million to break even.
Why do I sound so worried? That’s because ‘Fall Guy’ cost $125 million to produce. That’s a lot for a film that isn’t IP. Are Blunt and Gosling that expensive? Budgets have just been balooning in Hollywood since the pandemic and I really think it’s wise for studios to start cutting back. “The Fall Guy” looks like something that should have cost $80-90 million, max.
Even if ‘Fall Guy’ ends up having some legs, and doesn’t have major dip in the ensuing weeks, it would still come up short, and likely not break even. There’s a reason why Universal is advertising this film EVERYWHERE. You can’t escape it. They’re shoving it down our throats.
It’s not like reviews are turning people off either. Critics have been, so far, very good for film. I’m only supposed to catch it next Monday, but very much looking to seeing it.
Leitch is a much sought after filmmaker in the industry, especially, and mostly, for action movies. He’s so far directed “John Wick,” “Atomic Blonde,” “Deadpool 2,” “Hobbs and Shaw,” and 2022’s “Bullet Train.” His specialty is brainless action.
Yesterday, THR spoke to a few industry insiders, and many of them namechecked Leitch as being “at the top of studio wish lists as someone who is able to direct entertaining films while having a great relationship with talent.”