A new Oscars predictions group has been started by Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone, it’s called The Gatecrashers, and it’ll be a ton of fun helping her out with this project. Stone has put together the charts. There’s also user predictions, which should be posted in the next few days. If you haven’t yet logged yours, you can still do so here.
This year’s Oscar race is wide open, with fewer contenders than usual, mostly due to last year’s strikes. This has resulted in some studios being tempted to drop last-minute releases into the 2024 calendar.
The Gatecrashers and Gold Derby both have Sean Baker‘s “Anora” as the frontrunner to win the 2025 Best Picture Oscar. Out of 12 Gate Crashers contributors , including yours truly, “Anora” has five #1 votes, “Conclave” has 2 votes, and “Dune II” and “Emilia Perez” each have one.
Out of 28 Gold Derby contributors “Anora” has tallied ten first-place rankings — the highest out of any film. “Emilia Perez” has 7 votes, “Conclave” has 4, and “The Brutalist” has 3.
In the last 70 years, there has only been one film that won both the Palme d’Or and Best Picture: Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite.” Will Baker’s film make it two? There’s a good possibility. “Anora” has been the talk of every festival it’s played at; it also almost won the TIFF People’s Choice Award despite only having three screening total at that festival.
My personal 10 predicted nominees currently are (1) Anora (2) Conclave (3) The Brutalist (4) Emilia Perez (5) Dune: Part II (6) Sing Sing (7) A Real Pain (8) Gladiator II (9) Nickel Boys (10) Saturday Night
I’m most intrigued by “September 5,” which I haven’t seen, but THR’s Scott Feinberg is betting all of his Oscar chips on — he currently has it winning Best Picture. The film is #13 on Gate Crashers, but #10 on Gold Derby. Next Best Picture’s Matt Neglia and ABC’s Peter Travers both have it as their #6.
Here are the current Best Picture rankings (via The Gatecrashers). Do you agree?
