This month’s Best Picture odds (via Gold Derby) haven’t resulted in much of a change in the rankings. Sean Baker’s “Anora” remains the frontrunner, and Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez” is #2 — both premiered at Cannes.
I’m also in agreement with the rest of the top six, rounded out by “Conclave,” (#3) “The Brutalist,” (#4) “Sing Sing,” (#5) and “Dune: Part Two” (#6). However, there’s a decent chance that, once some of them get seen, the bottom four films — “Blitz,” “Nickel Boys,” “Gladiator II,” “A Complete Unknown” — might not remain in the top 10.
Yes, the Oscar race is wide open, with not many strong contenders to vouch for, and it’s gotten some studios tempted to drop last-minute releases into the 2024 calendar. Will it actually happen? It’s a stretch, but we’ve seen this happen before (i.e. 2004’s “Million Dollar Baby”).
According to the NYT’s Kyle Buchanan, there’s been temptation from some studios to pull an “October surprise” and release films that were only meant to be unveiled next year. Two of them, according to Buchanan, are Kogonada’s “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” and Bill Condon’s “Kiss of the Spider Woman.”
Condon’s ‘Kiss of the Spider-Woman,’ which wrapped filming in June, based on Manuel Puig’s 1976 novel, was first released as a film in 1985. Directed by Hector Babenco, it garnered critical acclaim and received four Oscar nominations, including for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor, the latter category won by the film’s lead, William Hurt.
Meanwhile, Sony is so high on Kogonada’s “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey,” starring Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, that they’ve ruminated about giving it a last-minute push. The film, described as “an imaginative tale of two strangers and the unbelievable journey that connects them,” wrapped production in June.
It’s getting very late in the year, and for a studio to suddenly drop a new title into the 2024 Oscar race would be wild. If it doesn’t happen in the next week or two, then forget about it, but at least now we know that a few studios out there are at least weighing their options.