THR Has ‘American Fiction’ as the Best Picture Frontrunner

There are only a handful of Oscar pundits that actually have some kind of clout with voters and industry, almost all of them, unsurprisingly, stem from the trades: Variety’s Clayton Davis, Deadline’s Pete Hammond, IndieWire’s Anne Thompson, THR’s Scott Feinberg and Awards Daily’s Sasha Stone.

All of them are predicting an “Oppenheimer” win except for Feinberg. As much as I love “American Fiction,” and it does have its TIFF award as a momentum booster, I don’t believe it stands a chance at winning Best Picture. Feinberg believes that it does, and has it as his current #1 with Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” at #2.

This past September, Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction,” a confident debut and remarkable feat of comedy, satire and racial politics, won the coveted TIFF People’s Choice Award. It’s one of the best American films of the year.

The film has also turned into one of the surprise awards players this season. A trailer had been released by MGM/Orion. “American Fiction” will premiere on December 15, with an expansion on December 22.

As much as I’ve praised “American Fiction,” I don’t believe this is the best year for it to win. Four films are currently ahead of it in the Best Picture race; two sweeping epics (“Oppenheimer” and Killers of the Flower Moon”), the year’s biggest blockbuster (“Barbie”) and the year’s best reviewed film (“Poor Things”).

Here are my BP predictions as of 10.20.23:

1) “Oppenheimer”
2) “Killers of the Flower Moon”
3) “Poor Things”
4) “Barbie”
5) “The Holdovers”
6) “Past Lives”
7) “Maestro”
8) “American Fiction”
9) “Anatomy of A Fall”
10) “Across the Spider-Verse”