Variety’s Clayton Davis is reporting what I’ve known for quite a few months now: Academy voters’ love for “Top Gun: Maverick” is real and it could go all the way.
I’ve spoken to over a dozen Academy members who have the film as their #1. That’s more than any other film. Davis has also surveyed Oscar voters and he insists “Top Gun: Maverick” has a big chance at winning Best Picture come next March:
“Top Gun: Maverick” is beloved, and many members indicate this is their best picture pick or ranked incredibly high on their ballots. Discussions with members of the acting branch have not indicated the alleged “fifth spot” is going to Tom Cruise, but you can choose virtually anyone (Hugh Jackman, Paul Mescal, etc.) and place your bets.
It doesn’t matter if Tom Cruise gets nominated or not. It doesn’t matter if the film itself gets a screenplay nod either. That’s besides the point when it comes to Top Gun: Maverick’s Best Picture chances. This is a big, loud and entertaining movie that has vastly broad appeal. You can’t say the same about “Everything Everywhere All At Once” or “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
For many months I’ve been drumming the beat for “Top Gun: Maverick,” which would be a somewhat unusual winner as it’s a straight-up action blockbuster. It does have the honor of having “saved” the industry by proving that an innumerable amount of moviegoers are still willing to go to theaters. The reviews have also been great — It’s the fourth most-listed 2022 film on critics top tens.
For now, keep a close eye out on who wins the Producers Guild of America later this month. That’s the one prize ‘Maverick’ needs to win and I’m currently predicting that it might just do that.
My gut is telling me that “Top Gun: Maverick” is the actual frontrunner that absolutely nobody dares acknowledge at the moment. Film Twitter is currently too invested in EEAO and Banshees that they’ve lost sight of the bigger picture. They’d probably lose their collective minds if ‘Maverick’ wins the big prize.
I may be very wrong with this prediction, but I’m sticking with it for now. Whether you liked it or not, it was the movie event of the year for a majority of moviegoers.
Of course, we all know the rule: take these reactions with a grain of salt rather than treating them as gospel. Still, I will say that the film tested like gangbusters earlier this year, and Lionsgate clearly has confidence.