What PGA, SAG and DGA Told Us About the Oscar Race

It’s been a wild week for precursors. The PGA, SAG and DGA all announced their nominees and suffice to say we don’t necessarily have a clearer picture of the Best Picture race. It’s all a jumbled mess.

What we do know is that there are still 7 locks: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “TÁR,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “The Fabelmans,” “Elvis” and “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

The last three spots are up for grabs. It used to be that, in years past, at this stage in the race we would know around 8-9 of the Best Picture nominees, but not this year. Curveball after curveball have been thrown at us.

“Women Talking” was snubbed by the PGA, its actors snubbed in the SAG supporting categories and its director Sarah Polley nowhere to be seen on the DGA final five. This confirmed my suspicions that it just isn’t as well-liked as many pundits had originally thought.

Meanwhile, “The Whale” received a major boost from the PGA and SAG this week. I now believe it’ll get a Best Picture nomination. Audience scores have been incredibly positive for Darren Aronofsky’s film, its box-office has been fairly stellar and then there’s the Guild screenings, which occurred all throughout the fall, which felt celebratory and rowdy in nature.

The other films vying for a Best Picture nomination are aplenty: “Glass Onion,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “RRR,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Babylon,” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.”

So, we don’t have much of an idea what films will take the #8, #9 and #10 spots.

We also don’t have much of an idea about the current frontrunner. You’ll have people swearing by “Everything Everywhere All At Once” until the bitter end. Their opinion will never be changed. Some believe “The Fabelmans” is back as the frontrunner after its Golden Globe win. “Top Gun: Maverick” seems to still be the dark horse of the race, maybe it can win the PGA? Then there’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” which has a lot of love in the industry.

What we do know is that Oscar voting has started. The AMPAS voting body will be looking at all of the precursors of the past week and making their own decisions. Some will surely be influenced by what the PGA, DGA and SAG selected, while others will go in the other direction and opt for snubbed films.

These are my currently predicted BP nominees:

“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All At Once”
The Fabelmans”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“TÁR”
“Elvis”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Whale”
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Glass Onion”

Now, it’s your turn to choose the last three spots in the Best Picture race.