We are a third of the way done in this movie year, and the only decent Best Picture contender released so far, although a long shot, is The Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All At Once.”
Maybe Robert Eggers’ solidly reviewed “The Northman” could become a contender these later months, but it’s projected to be a major flop at the box-office this coming weekend. Call it a long shot for now.
We’ve amassed 23 obvious contenders, on-paper at least, right below. I imagine more than half of these will probably not make it in the end, that’s always the case when you start predictions this early in the game.
”Killers of the Flower Moon” (Martin Scorsese)
”Babylon” (Damien Chazelle)
“The Killer” (David Fincher)
”Asteroid City” (Wes Anderson)
“The Fablemans” (Steven Spielberg)
“Poor Things” (Yorgos Lanthimos)
”Bardo” (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu)
”Empire of the Light” (Sam Mendes)
“Women Talking” (Sarah Polley)
”The Whale” (Darren Aronofsky)
“Tar” (Todd Field)
“Banshees of Inisherin” (Martin McDonagh)
“Don’t Worry Darling” (Olivia Wilde)
”Elvis” (Baz Luhrmann)
”Thirteen Lives” (Ron Howard)
”Showing Up” (Kelly Reichardt)
”The Son” (Florian Zeller)
”Rustin” (George C. Wolfe)
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody” (Kasi Lemmons)
“Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)
“She Said” (Maria Schrader)
”Everything Everywhere All At Once (The Daniels)
There’s also the inevitability that something from Cannes could sneak in there ala “Parasite,” “Drive My Car,” and “Amour.” This year, keep your eyes out for another South Korean sensation to emerge, maybe Park Chan-Wook‘s “Decision to Leave” or Hirokazu Kore-eda’s “Broker.”
Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” is currently set for a 2023 release, but that could rapidly change. It’s an automatic contender until it is actually seen.
Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest” is not on the list because this brilliant writer-director doesn’t do “Oscar Bait.” I don’t believe Glazer has it in him to conform to any kind of conventionality and you usually need some of that for Oscar.
Luca Guadagnino’s “Bones & All” is said to be a very strange cannibal road movie. A producer pally has seen it and loved it. I’m in no way saying it’ll be a critical smash when it premieres at Venice in September, but word so far is very good.
As far as I’m concerned, Terrence Malick’s “The Way of the Wind” will never be released.
Ari Aster’s “Disappointment Blvd” would be a stretch …
I’ve been hearing and reading very negative reactions about David O. Russell’s “Canterbury Glass,” so much so that I just can’t fathom putting it anywhere near the contender’s list. Not only is he a marked man, but his latest is said to be very bad.
I have very high hopes for Noah Baumbach’s “White Noise,” an adaptation of Don DeLillo’s novel which has long been said as “impossible to film.” A plotless postmodernist exploration of death, consumerism, and suburban malaise is not something a group of voters that awarded “CODA” their top prize this year will be too keen on voting for.
The Rolling Stones are heading to the big screen after reportedly finalizing a biopic deal with American production company 101 Studios.