Since 2009, only three movies have won PGA and not gone on to win the Oscar for best picture — “The Big Short”, “La La Land” and “1917”.
With that being said, what if “CODA” wins on Saturday? Will the race be over? I’m inclined to think so. The odds-on favorite is Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” but it’s also turned into the film too many people have been beating up on lately.
Filmmaker Rod Lurie, an Oscar voter will clout, tells me he doesn’t know a single person who will vote for Campion’s film. This leaves us with the semi-entertaining TV movie “CODA,” which has been gaining a ton of momentum ever since it won SAG ensemble.
I’m also inclined to believe that “King Richard” still has a shot. Another crowd-pleaser that was highly celebrated at Telluride, but, misguidingly, decided to skip TIFF where it could have potentially won the Audience Award. Whoever decided to not send “King Richard” to that festival should probably be fired.
That’s the three films that stand the biggest chance of winning right now. There are still people out there who believe “Dune” could sneak in and win, but who are we kidding here? Sci-fi and Oscar tend to not mesh well together, and “Dune” is not the kind of movie that could break the mold.
Spielberg’s “West Side Story” still has a slim shot at the big prize. There’s no denying that. It’s as Hollywood as it gets, and incredibly inclusive in its casting, but where’s the narrative? “CODA” is running on the strength of its deaf leads, “King Richard” is this year’s BLM movie and “The Power of the Dog” has a female filmmaker at the helm, not to mention voting for it would be hailed as a middle finger to Sam Elliot and the “patriarchy”.
Also, back to “West Side Story,” why would the academy give their Best Picture prize to a remake of a film that already won the Oscar 50 years ago?
Sure, if enough voters watch “Drive My Car” then maybe there could be enough support for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s film. However, Hamaguchi’s epic isn’t as accessible as “Parasite,” was, but also much slower and double the length.
I bet almost every voter has seen Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up.” That’s definitely an advantage. The critics hated it. Audiences, mostly, liked it. The cast is A-list, the industry loves McKay and it’s quite topical right now. Who knows. It helps that it can be accessed with just the click of a button on anybody’s Netflix, where it was #1 in 88 of 89 countries.
”Licorice Pizza” is just plain too weird narratively.
“Belfast” has lost a ton of momentum. It couldn’t even win the top prize at BAFTA, where it had home field advantage as a UK production.
We are left with these rankings on 03.18.22
CODA
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
West Side Story
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley