I’ve been on the Jessica-Chastain-will-win-the-Oscar bandwagon for more than four months now, way before she won her SAG statuette for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” I hadn’t seen any frontrunner stand out of the Best Actress category, especially after Kristen Stewart’s SAG snub, so I figured Chastain was way overdue and had the best narrative to boot.
Most pundits are going with Chastain now, but I’ve decided to retract my original prediction from two days ago and now believe that Penelope Cruz will win Best Actress on Sunday night. Cruz gives the best performance of the five nominated actresses and it seems as though she has the passion of industry voters as well.
It’s gotta be Cruz.
Cruz didn’t even get a Golden Globe nod or a SAG nod -Didn’t even make the BAFTA long list. And yet, she’s very much in the thick of the race and her stock has been surging these last few weeks. Trust in the power of Almodovar.
There’s also been anonymous Oscar voter ballots posted in the trades, I’m counting 20 of them and Cruz was the far-away pick, having been chosen in 14 of these ballots. The next closest competitor isn’t even Chastain (3 votes) it’s Kirsten Stewart with 5 votes.
Other categories:
Best Picture: CODA (7 votes), The Power of the Dog (3), Dune (3), Licorice Pizza (2), Nightmare Alley (2)
Best Director: Campion (10) Spielberg (7), Branagh (2), Hamaguchi (2), PTA (1)
Best Actor: Will Smith (10), Garfield (6), Cumberbatch (5)
Best Supporting Actor: Kotsur (15), Smit-McPhee (5)
Best Supporting Actress: Dunst (8), DeBose (6), Ellis (3)
Food for thought.