Updated Best Picture Rankings; Does ‘Glass Onion’ Have a Shot?

I wasn’t a massive fan of 2019’s “Knives Out.” I did like it, but maybe not as much as others did. It could have snuck into the Best Picture lineup that year if it weren’t for the fact that it was released in 2019, which had an abundance of great films.

The sequel, ‘Glass Onion,’ is far more entertaining. Why? Because, unlike the original, it doesn’t take itself as seriously. It’s a rousing romp that shoots darts at its specific targets and is never boring. It helps that Rian Johnson brings some real directorial energy to the whole thing.

Now, does “Glass Onion” have a shot at nabbing a Best Picture nomination? It’s being released tomorrow by Netflix in 600 theaters. Ticket sales, from what I’ve heard, are excellent and the reviews keep getting better.

93% on Rotten Tomatoes with an impressive average score of 8.1 (one of the best this year). Also, an 82 on Metacritic (based on 32 reviews). Around the same numbers as the original, but 2022 has been such a weak year that I’m thinking it sneaks its way into the Best Picture lineup.

It helps that Netflix doesn’t really have another contender. No, Guillermo del Toro’s “Pinocchio” won’t get in. I’ve seen that film, and as much as it contains stunning artistry, it still very much plays like a kids movie — a major red flag for a voting body that has rarely warmed up to animation.

As for “Babylon,” unveiled to polarizing reactions in Los Angeles and New York last week, I’m not really sure what its chances are since I’m not seeing it until next week. However, don’t kid yourself, it does have a decent shot, as there’s definitely some passion for Damien Chazelle’s ode to old Hollywood.

The Academy loves these kinds of sprawling, risk-taking, and ambitious endeavors. “Babylon” is just that. It sounds like the type of film that has now become a rarity in American cinema. Its box office will probably give us a better picture of its chances, as will critical support. It doesn’t necessarily need all-out praise (which it won’t get), but rather passionate approval from a big enough body of voters.

Right now I’m thinking we have four locks, “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and three films on the cusp of being locked-in, “TÁR,” “Women Talking,” and “Elvis.”

That leaves us three spots. I still believe in “She Said,” although the toxic write-ups it garnered this weekend over its disastrous box office won’t do it any favors. So, maybe it’s out, for now.

“Avatar: The Way of Way” will have to get good reviews. A $1 billion box-office intake would not be enough if it’s in the yellow on Metacritic or in the 60s on Rotten Tomatoes. It NEEDS critics.

I also have no idea what to make of “The Whale.” Critics are split on it and A24’s sad excuse for a “trailer” didn’t really build up any momentum. It is, however, turning into a true crowd-pleaser at special screenings, with standing ovation after standing ovation greeting Darren Aronofsky’s film and its star, Brendan Fraser.

Do I really need to get into “The Woman King”? Its $65 million box office had certainly been deemed successful by journalists, and reviews have been positive. I still think it has a steep hill to climb though.

Again, this has been a year with not much quality Oscar bait, and the elusive last three spots that I mentioned earlier will probably come down to the wire. For now, I’m picking “Babylon,” “The Whale” and “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

BEST PICTURE RANKINGS (November)

The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, TÁR, Elvis, Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Whale

CONTENDERS

The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, She Said, The Woman King, Till, All Quiet on the Western Front, Thirteen Lives