I don’t particularly find Variety’s Clayton Davis to be as clueless as many out there claim him to be. After all, Davis attends all the big Academy screenings and gets a good vibe as to what is well-received by voters.
Before I get into his latest ballsy/peculiar Best Picture predictions. We have to first acknowledge that there are 5 films practically locked for a nomination: “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” and “TÁR.”
Then there’s the films that, although not complete locks, will most likely get nominated: “Women Talking,” and “Elvis.” Unless almost ALL of the titles that remain to be seen exceed expectations, then these two will get in.
This leaves us with the last three spots to complete our Best Picture lineup. Davis seems to think that, right now, as of 11.06.22, the Academy will go for “Living,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “The Woman King.”
Davis has Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” at #19. What?! Does he know something we don’t know about the film? It’s officially being screened for press next weekend, there’s no reason to think it won’t get some love.
Is Clayton basing his low expectations on the lacklustre trailer? All signs indicate that, even if “Babylon” becomes a polarizing love it/hate it film for critics, it should not be 19th on any body’s Best Picture predictions. It’s a film about the industry, with big stars, a hot filmmaker at the helm and immense ambition. Basically, the type of film that just doesn’t get greenlit anymore by a major studio.
The Gold Derby odds, based on the predictions of close to 40 Oscar “experts,” currently have “Babylon” at #5. That’s more like it.
Other films that have not yet been screened include “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Emancipation,” “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” and, to a lesser extent, “ A Man Called Otto.”
Now, let’s just pretend that this upcoming weekend’s “Babylon” screening results in positive reaction and Chazelle’s turns into a BP lock, that leaves us with two spots remaining. There are plenty of contenders currently fighting for the #9 and #10 spots: “Glass Onion,” “Wakanda Forever,” “She Said,” “Pinocchio,” “The Whale,” “All Quiet on the Western Front” “Thirteen Lives,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Till,” and, yes, “The Woman King.”
My task for our readers is to, out of the above titles mentioned, choose the ubiquitous two films that they believe have the best shot at a Best Picture nomination. It’s not that easy. The race this year is a wild one.