Oscars: ‘The Fabelmans’ is #1, What’s #2? Anne Thompson Hints it Could be ‘Banshees’

Anne Thompson is again banging the drums for Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin.” She doesn’t deny that Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” is the frontrunner, but …

“[Be] careful what you wish for. Being the Oscar frontrunner out of the gate is not always where you want to be. Spielberg knows this firsthand: A decade ago, “Lincoln” was the frontrunner and scored 11 nominations but wound up with only two wins, for Daniel Day-Lewis (who, after all, was Lincoln) and production designer Rick Carter.”

“The Fabelmans” is a crowdpleaser with an 84 Metascore, but the family drama lacks some of the scale and scope that attracts multiple nominations. Editing and John Williams’ score would seem in the bag.“

There’s also the fact that ‘Fabelmans’ is not a shoo-in for box-office success. In fact, I’m predicting right here that it won’t make a lot of money at the box-office. What’s the draw exactly? Steven Spielberg telling the audience how he became an Oscar-winning director? Fact of the matter is that Spielberg’s life won’t be that interesting a hook unless you are a cinephile and/or major fan of his.

Practically every pundit has “The Fabelmans” as their #1 horse in the Best Picture race. Call it the de facto frontrunner since, quite frankly, there is no other movie that has stood out as an ideal major contender. Maybe that’ll change when Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” is screened the second week of November, but, for now, it’s all about Spielberg and his film.

Thompson again implies that “The Banshees of Inisherin” could shake up the race:

“… the stealth candidate from wily Searchlight is Martin McDonagh’s hit “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which could build support from the speciality-leaning and international side of the Academy.”

‘Banshees’ is brilliant, melancholic, acerbic, but it might be a tad too artfully vague for Oscar voters tastes. Again, I’ll be more than happy if my assumption turns out to be wrong and McDonagh wins the top prize, but if you’ve seen ‘Banshees’ then you know exactly what I’m talking about. It’s a bitter film about how bitter life is.

This is where “Top Gun: Maverick” comes into play, which is my current #3. I mean, what else would you have in second place? “Women Talking” is not going to connect with a majority of voters, “TÁR” (the critical darling of the year) is too cold and Kubrickian to connect with wide appeal.

Then again, you have no idea how many emails I get from people who keep insisting “Everything Everywhere All At Once” is the actual frontrunner. I just don’t buy it. Fact of the matter is that I don’t think the film will be winning any Oscars, but you can bet it’ll be nominated in a bunch of categories. I don’t have any confidence in it winning Best Picture; it’s not Academy fodder, pure and simple. Can you imagine any of the older voters actually warming up to EEAO’s frenetic ADD-enhanced mayhem? Of course not.

Regardless, I’ll mention it again, I’ve never seen this many actors/filmmakers gushing over a film this decade. Industry superfans of EEAO include Miles Teller, Riz Ahmed, Sian Heder, Guillermo del Toro, Anne Hathaway, Scott Derrickson, Colman Domingo, Sam Rockwell, Edgar Wright, SZA, Andrew Garfield, Reese Whitherspoon, Kogonada, Keke Palmer, Barry Jenkins, Lilly Wachowski, Florence Pugh, Jodie Foster, The Russos and Mike Flanagan.

At the end of the day, it comes down to “Babylon.” The film will be press screened on November 14th and then, only then, will we know what awaits Damien Chazelle’s epic film. The now-legendary test-screening that occurred this past Spring had people leaving the theatre floating in sheer cinematic nirvana. I’ve spoken to more than half a dozen attendees who now all abide by the church of “Babylon.”

Best Picture [11.02.22]

1) The Fabelmans
2) Babylon
3) Top Gun: Maverick
4) Everything Everywhere All At Once
5) The Banshees of Inisherin
6) TAR
7) Women Talking
8) Elvis
9) Avatar: The Way of the Water
10) Glass Onion