This week we’ve been zeroing in on the Best Actor race. We know there are, probably, three locks in the category: Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. The last two spots are still up for grabs, although, at the moment, those with the best shot at taking those two spots are Bill Nighy and Tom Cruise, or so I believe.
THR’s Scott Feinberg has Cruise as his #4 and none other than Adam Sandler as his #5. Yes, here I am again talking about Sandler. I just can’t seem to escape him these last few weeks. On 09.29.22 I mentioned how Netflix was going to relentlessly push his “Hustle” performance during awards season.
I’m not ready to insert him into my predictions just yet, but let’s all stop believing that he doesn’t have a slight shot at getting into the final five. First off, here are the three locks to likely get nominated:
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
It’s most likely going to be a race between Butler and Fraser, the two showiest roles, but, if it were up to me, Colin Farrell would sweep every precursor and win the Oscar. He’s that good in Martin McDonagh’s film.
We’re still not sure about Calva’s performance. “Babylon” has only been test-screened, but he did get glowing praise from attendees back in the Spring. The Best Actor field this year is very weak, those last two remaining spots will basically be fought between these five actors:
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Adam Sandler (Hustle)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Hugh Jackman (The Son)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
If I were a betting me, I’d go with Nighy and Cruise. A lot of eyes roll when you mention Tom Cruise might get in, but between getting the honorary Palme d’Or, rejuvenating the worldwide box-office, being a consistent star for almost five decades and getting great reviews, we need to take his chances very seriously.
The long shots that nevertheless deserve mention:
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Adam Driver (White Noise)
Cooper Raiff (Cha Cha Real Smooth)
The one from these that could sneak in is Jeremy Pope. His performance in “The Inspection” is outstanding, revelatory. The film is mostly a showcase for Pope, a highly talented stage actor who finally gets his breakout role here. The draining and cerebral emotions he brings to his character are damn-near impressive.