Is there any doubt that Jane Campion will win the Best Director prize? Even voters who weren’t particularly keen on “The Power of the Dog” might want to vote for Campion: it’s a great narrative.
Campion has been around since the ‘80s, delivering great movies such as “Sweetie,” “An Angel at the Table,” and “The Piano” — the latter she could have won the Oscar for if it weren’t for that being the year of Spielberg and “Schindler’s List.”
Lo and behold, notice who is Campion’s toughest competitor for this year’s race …
Steven Spielberg directed the hell out of “West Side Story” and one can imagine another Campion vs Spielberg bout occurring again almost 20 years to the day they last faced off. Of course, Spielberg’s film was almost completely shut out of the SAG nominations, but watch out for the DGA noms, it could give us a better picture of the stakes in this race.
Who else could compete against Spielberg and Campion? Kenneth Branagh will most likely be part of the conversation, his “Belfast” might not be the showiest film of 2021, but it most certainly is the most autobiographical of this year’s contenders. Voters love personal statements, and “Belfast” has the backing of former Academy president Sid Ganis, who, at last year’s Telluride, called Branagh’s film “one of the best movies I’ve ever seen.”
Denis Villeneuve is practically guaranteed his second nom just solely for the ambition and scope he brought to his sci-fi epic “Dune.” Even voters who disliked the film might vote for him out of sheer admiration for what he’s accomplished. The more-than-decent box-office also helps a lot.
That leaves us with one final spot. Reinaldo Marcus Green? Adam McKay? Asghar Farhadi? Ridley Scott? Guillermo del Toro? You be the judge of that.
Frontrunners
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
Guillermo del Toro (Nightmare Alley)
Contenders
Reinaldo Marcus Green (King Richard)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up)
Ridley Scott (House of Gucci)
Joel Coen (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Pedro Almodovar (Parallel Mothers)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Asghar Farhadi (A Hero)
Outsiders
Julia Ducournau (Titane)
Rebecca Hall (Passing)
Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)
Pablo Larrain (Spencer)
Sian Heder (CODA)
Joe Wright (Cyrano)
John M Chu (In the Heights)
Ridley Scott (The Last Duel)
Still no distributor for "Bucking Fastard," "Alpha Gang," "The Last Photograph," "Closing Night," and "The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd." The issue seems to be quality more than a lack of willingness to buy.