2021 Oscars predictions: Will ‘Nomadland’ Win Best Picture?

The global pandemic hasn’t stopped the Oscars this year as the show will go on this Sunday on ABC. Forget about the fact that last year saw the delay of hundreds of movies, many of which may have been Oscar contenders if released, but the Academy is also expecting its nominees to show up with a vaccination card and tux/gown in tow. The rule seems to be simple; pretend there is/was no pandemic. Guests will not be allowed to wear masks while on camera. And it won't be virtual -- it will be real. Oy vey.

And so, we are left with the movies, the performances, the scripts etc. all of which we were forced to watch at home since most theaters were closed these last 11 or so months. There are no big-budgeted epics up for contention, just small movies, some very small. It all amounts to a Best Picture slate that might just be the worst one since the transitional period of silent to talkies in the late ‘20s.

I am in no way shape or form pretending these will be easy categories to predict. Vegas betting is still on for this year, so are my annual predictions about who should win -- and who will win -- in the six major Oscar categories.

Best Picture

• "The Father"

• "Judas and the Black Messiah"

• "Mank"

• "Minari"

• "Nomadland"

• "Promising Young Woman"

• "Sound of Metal"

• "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

SHOULD WIN: Let’s make one thing clear, in a normal year, maybe 2 or 3 these titles would actually have gotten nominated. The artful mindgames of “The Father” and masterful noise experiments in “Sound of Metal” are the real gimmes. However, it’s damn-near shameful sin that Steve McQueen’s “Lovers Rock” and Eliza Hittman’s “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” didn’t make the cut.

WILL WIN: "Nomadland." It has to be Chloe Zhao’s film. It’s the critical favourite of 2020 and the kind of film the Academy loves to honour; well-respected lead actress, female director, Americana setting. With that being said, I’ve had the sneaking suspicion this entire awards season that “Trial of the Chicago 7” might prevail purely based on its accessibility (Netflix) and the fact that audiences seem to love Aaron Sorkin’s bombastic courtroom drama.

Best Director

• Thomas Vinterberg ("Another Round")

• David Fincher ("Mank")

• Lee Isaac Chung ("Minari")

• Chloé Zhao ("Nomadland")

• Emerald Fennell ("Promising Young Woman")

SHOULD WIN: Emerald Fennell proved to be a stunning visualist with her none-too-subtle #MeToo diatribe “Promising Young Woman.” You can complain all you want about the film, and even I have, but there’s no denying the raw talent behind every frame. In a year skimp on artistry, Fennell was one of the rare exciting new voices.

WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao for “Nomadland.” The Chinese-born director is destined to be the toast of the town for her Malick-ian opus “Nomadland. It’s only her third film, after 2015’s “Songs My Brothers Taught Me” and 2018’s “The Rider,” but Zhao becoming only the second woman to win an Oscar after Katherine Bigelow (2009’s “The Hurt Locker”) is an offer Hollywood can’t refuse.

Best Actress

• Viola Davis ("Ma Rainey's Black Bottom")

• Andra Day ("The United States v. Billie Holiday")

• Vanessa Kirby ("Pieces of a Woman")

• Frances McDormand ("Nomadland")

• Carey Mulligan ("Promising Young Woman")

SHOULD WIN: The most unpredictable category has Davis, Day, Mulligan, and McDormand duking it out for Oscar gold. The irony of it all is how the one most deserving to win stands almost no chance. Vanessa Kirby channeled her inner Gena Rowlands (thinks early Cassavetes) for a devastating portrayal of loss in “Pieces of a Woman,” her performance will stand the test of time.

WILL WIN: It has to be Carey Mulligan for “Promising Young Woman,” right? You might as well just roll a dice and pick an actress here, that’s how close it is. Mulligan, in the showiest role, is revenge incarnated, a character you can’t help but root for even when she tries to combat evil with evil. It’s as timely a role as it gets in this day and age of #MeToo social justice warrior-ing. However, watch out for Davis and Day to steal the glory away from her.

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed ("Sound of Metal")

• Chadwick Boseman ("Ma Rainey's Black Bottom")

• Anthony Hopkins ("The Father")

• Gary Oldman ("Mank")

• Steven Yeun ("Minari")

SHOULD WIN: In a fair world, it would be a race between Anthony Hopkins, so eloquent and powerful in “The Father,” and Riz Ahmed’s stunningly revelatory work in “Sound of Metal.” The fact that it almost feels obligatory to give it to a late black performer is unfair to these two stalwarts.

WILL WIN: The late Chadwick Boseman will win for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” It’s the one performance that even if unseen by a voter could get check-marked on an Oscar ballot. It’s not that Boseman is bad in ‘Ma Rainey,’ he’s just hampered by the staginess of the film. His death from colon cancer at 43 shocked the world of film over, he was the Black Panther, Jackie Robinson, James Brown and Thurgood Marshall. Look for him to be only the third actor to win a posthumous Oscar after Peter Finch (“Network”) and Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”).

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova ('Borat Subsequent Moviefilm")

• Glenn Close ("Hillbilly Elegy")

• Olivia Colman ("The Father")

• Amanda Seyfried ("Mank")

• Yuh-jung Youn ("Minari")

SHOULD WIN: Yuh-jung Youn for "Minari." Even those who disliked “Minari,” and there aren’t many of those, raves about the 73-year-old South Korean’s performance — she’s the heart and soul of Lee Isaac Chung’s autobiographical film.

WILL WIN: Yuh-jung Youn. Of course, watching Glenn Close win her first ever Oscar, after seven previous attempts, would be hard to resist, but this will be one of the rare Oscar categories where the deserving nominee actually takes home the prize.

Best Supporting Actor

• Daniel Kaluuya ("Judas and the Black Messiah")

• Leslie Odom Jr. ("One Night in Miami")

• Paul Raci ("Sound of Metal")

• Lakeith Stanfield ("Judas and the Black Messiah")

• Sacha Baron Cohen ("The Trial of the Chicago 7")

SHOULD WIN: Paul Raci in “Sound of Metal.”

WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya for "Judas and the Black Messiah." The British actor will carry the BLM mantle for the evening. Playing Black Panther chairman Fred Hampton, Kaluuya has already been deemed the Oscar winner by the pundits. If he does somehow lose on Sunday evening then it would be considered a big upset. Don’t count on it.