It’s really not even close. The Best Actor race this year has already been narrowed down to two frontrunners and a spoiler: King Richard’s Will Smith and The Power of the Dog’s Benedict Cumberbatch with The Tragedy of Macbeth’s Denzel Washington acting as a very serious spoiler. The rest of the potential nominees feel like sloppy seconds.
Of course, there could technically be an outsider who upsets and steals it from these two actors, but who are we kidding here? The narrative for both Smith and Cumberbatch is too hard to resist. Both have never won and both are well-loved by both the industry and audiences.
Smith has been going at it since the early ’90s and his “Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” days. However, despite picking mediocre scripts over the years, and contrary to what some may believe, Smith is actually a very talented actor. Just watch “Ali” and then tell me with a straight face that he isn’t. He was the best part of “Pursuit of Happyness,” delivering a touchingly emotional performance in a rather sterile film. Ditto in “I Am Legend,” which is actually a good film and has Smith acting solo for most of the film (unless you count that dog). Consider me not surprised that he is as affecting as he is in “King Richard.”
Meanwhile, Cumberbatch also started as a TV star. “Sherlock” has legions of fans and is often considered one of the great shows of the 21st century. However, Cumberbatch’s jump to film has been a very successful one, starring in “The Imitation Game,” “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” and “12 Years A Slave.”
Smith is set to garner his third Best Actor nomination. This will be Cumberbatch’s second. It’s impossible to predict who will win at this point.
Then there’s Washington. The raves he’s getting for “The Tragedy of Macbeth” are very hard to ignore. The 66-year-old actor has been Oscar-nominated 8 times, having won 2 statuettes. He hasn’t slowed down either, some of the best work of his career has occurred in these last 10 or so years. In ‘Macbeth’ he’s astonishing in his physical and punctual delivery. Even if voters find the film to be impenetrable, and there will be many, it’ll still be too hard to resist voting for him. I absolutely adored him in this movie. If he hadn’t portrayed Malcolm X, Rubin Carter, and Alonzo Harris then I would confidently say it’s the role that he was born to play,
Frontrunners
Will Smith (King Richard)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!)
Possibilities
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
Joaquin Phoenix (C’mon Cmon)
Jude Hill (Belfast)
Matt Damon (Stillwater)
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Adam Driver (House of Gucci)
Nicolas Cage (Pig)
Clifton Collins, Jr. (Jockey)
Long Shots
Timothee Chalamet (Dune)
Jake Gyllenhaal (The Guilty)
Andrew Garfield (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Michael Keaton (Worth)
Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God)
Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter)
Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)
Of course, we all know the rule: take these reactions with a grain of salt rather than treating them as gospel. Still, I will say that the film tested like gangbusters earlier this year, and Lionsgate clearly has confidence.