There are currently five locks for Best Picture; “Belfast,” “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog,” “Dune” and “CODA.”
In September, I spitballed the Best Picture race that was starting to take shape post Venice and Telluride. The conclusion that I came up with was that Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” was the current de facto frontrunner. Five weeks later, I’m starting to doubt that assessment.
Having seen Marcus Reinaldo Green’s “King Richard,” I can safely say it is the better and more effective crowd pleaser. It has the goods to go all the way. Rags-to-riches tale? Check. True story? Check. Inclusivity? Check. High-entertainment? Check. The film itself could get up to 4 acting nods, it’ll also be triumphant at SAG. Maybe the directors branch will be a little tougher on it since this isn’t really an auteur film, but it’s my current Best Picture winner. The film has already won five audience awards at film festivals. Astounding.
Regardless of its detractors, ”Dune” will get a slew of nominations. Its domestic take so far is $79 million, worldwide $312 million. The film’s budget, not including marketing costs, is around $165 million. These numbers are fine for the pandemic-era, but would have been seen as mediocre in pre-pandemic times. Alas, the film is destined to get numerous Oscar nominations and a significant cult following. Audiences seem to also be responding well to “Dune.” It garnered an A- Cinemascore, 90% RT audience score and 8.3 rating on IMDB. Streaming-wise, its HBO Max numbers are impressive. During its first week of release, almost 2 million homes in the U.S. streamed the film.
The little movie that could this year is Sian Heder’s “CODA,” a perfectly fine as it goes along indie that premiered at Sundance, got bought by Apple TV for $12 million and is now, more or less, a cinch to get a Best Picture nomination.
However, with that being said, the only actual masterfully composed film of the fall festival season was Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” a meticulous and absorbing revisionist Western that destroys gender stereotypes and is Campion’s best film since “The Piano.” You’re getting a lot of people who are saying that this is not a very accessible film for Oscar voters, but I digress from that sentiment. A great movie is a great movie.
There is still a lot left to be screened, films that could have been championed at fall fests but decided to skip them in favour of keeping a low profile until their release dates; Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza,” Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley,” Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up,” Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story,” and Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos.”
Nothing has technically changed otherwise, except for the reemergence of Ridley Scott’s “The Last Duel,” which was not well-liked at Venice, but has gotten much better reviews since then. It went from a 61 to a 70 Metascore and a 58 rotten score to an impressive 86 fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.
When it comes to “The Last Duel,” the proposition is almost irresistible for Oscar voters. This is a film starring three well-respected actors and a director who returns to the historical epic theatrics that won him Best Picture more than 20 years ago with “Gladiator.” It’s a rousing crowd pleaser that will win over audiences and have legs in the weeks and months to come.
If you look at the bottom contenders, it looks as though it’s been a fairly weak year at the movies, right? Not necessarily. Academy voters have fairly limited and unadventurous taste in movies, they would never, in my wildest dreams, vote for such risk-taking endeavors as Sean Baker’s “Red Rocket,” Mia Hansen-Love’s “Bergman Island,” Paul Verhoven’s “Benedetta,” or Celine Sciamma’s “Petite Maman.”
Locks
Power of the Dog
Belfast
King Richard
Dune
CODA
Contenders
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Lost Daughter
C’mon C’mon
In the Heights
The Last Duel
Passing
Cyrano
Longshots
The Hand of God
Flee
The French Dispatch
Respect
Stillwater
Mass
A Hero
The Worst Person in the Word
Not Yet Seen
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
Don’t Look Up
West Side Story
Being the Ricardos
Of course, we all know the rule: take these reactions with a grain of salt rather than treating them as gospel. Still, I will say that the film tested like gangbusters earlier this year, and Lionsgate clearly has confidence.