There is absolutely no way it wins Best Picture, maybe a nomination, but no way a win. The narrative structure is not that accessible — it could be the token arthouse/critic-backed nominee, but that’s about it. A screenplay nod for Anderson could happen, ditto Alana Haim squeezing into the Best actress and, of course, Bradley Cooper could get a Supporting Actor nod.
It’s not that PTA’s film is mediocre (it’s very good), but it’s not even close to matching his very best work. The central romance is very sweet and both leads are marvellously natural. However, there are so many detours in this movie that it’s bound to isolate a lot of audiences and voters. Anderson didn’t make this movie to get Oscars and bless him for that. In a year of American cinema that felt compromised by marketing and adhering to mainstream constraints, PTA is one of the few filmmakers fully following his own muse-like creativity.
In my 11.15.21 ramblings of the film, I wrote:
For such a freewheeling film, the 133 minute runtime is still very much needed to bring some much needed depth to what would have otherwise been a slight affair. “Licorice Pizza” is messy, passionate, flawed, brilliant, and, really, just all over the place. It’s going to polarize many.”
Only Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” is left to be screened and I’ll be catching that one tomorrow. A West Coast producer told me yesterday that it was very underwhelming, but I don’t really align with his tastes — then again, the trailer to the film does leave a lot to be desired.
The festival momentum “Belfast” seemed to have had during TIFF and Venice has evaporated due to the critical backlash and tepid box-office numbers. As we speak, there is no clear frontrunner, “King Richard” is the de facto #1 but its box-office also seems to be lagging.
Watch out for “Don’t Look Up,” that one seems to be very divisive, but the people who like it, REALLY like it. Meanwhile, Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” is going to be getting a ton of momentum these next few days with critics groups chiming in on the awards conversation; look for Campion’s masterful film to possibly win the New York Film Critics Circle on Wednesday and maybe even Los Angeles on the weekend.
This absolutely matters. That room was practically all Oscar voters. Fact remains, “Michael” was always going to contend for a best picture nomination, you just had to set your biases aside.