Final 2020 Oscar Nominations Predictions

When the Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow morning it’ll mark only the beginning of what will be a very wild month for movie fans. Despite the announcement still being less than 24 hours away, we already know, more or less, who will be the major contenders in 21 categories.

What we do know?

Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood,” will become the director’s fourth Best Picture nominee. Netflix will most likely end up with the most number of nominations than any other studio. And “Parasite” will be the first South Korean film nominated for not only International Film, but Best Picture.

Much like every year, expect snubs, expect surprises, expect backlash on the lack of inclusivity. I am currently only predicting two people-of-color to crack the acting categories, Lupita Nyong’o for “Us” and Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers.” I am also predicting Greta Gerwig fans will be sorely disappointed by the lack of nominations for “Little Women.” Hey, I could be wrong, but the film is just not capturing voters as much as its fans have hoped. Is it all just unconscious sexism? Don’t get me started.

Of note: The short categories are too hard to predict for most pundits at this point— and so, I have abstained from tackling it until we get our five nominees for each of the two shorts categories.

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BEST PICTURE

“1917”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Marriage Story”
“Parasite”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”

Notes: “Little Women” could come to crash the party, as we speak I’ve decided on there being 8 nominees, but there could be a ninth one and if that’s the case then I believe “Ford v Ferrari” will be nominated for Best Picture. Also, watch out for “Knives Out,” a major box-office champ and critical favorite.

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Taika Waititi for “Jojo Rabbit”

Notes: The smart thing to do here would be to follow the DGA nominees. That’s what I have done, although, through major social media campaigning, Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”) could potentially take over Waititi’s fifth and final slot. The dream scenario in my world would be Todd Phillips (“Joker”) taking number five (still a possibility).

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, “Ford v Ferrari”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

Notes: Could potentially sneak in and take Bale’s spot? Jonathan Pryce for “The Two Popes” or Christian Bale for “Ford v Ferrari.” The other four nominees seem to be etched in stone, even Egerton, whose campaigning has been very aggressive.

BEST ACTRESS

Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Rene Zellweger, “Judy”

Notes: Awkwafina for “The Farewell” could surprise more than a few. Right now, the most vulnerable to get bounced is Saoirse Ronan for “Little Women.” Another contender, Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”), was part of a very weak movie, but Academy voters may want to nominate her to bring even more inclusivity to the category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Anthony Hopkins for “The Two Popes”

Notes: Willem Dafoe’s “The Lighthouse” performance may get the shaft here, replace by Hopkins’ more accessible performance. Maybe voters looking for inclusivity may squeeze Jamie Foxx (“Just Mercy”) into the final five, but it does look as though these are out five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Notes: I have Bates taking Florence Pugh’s “Little Women” spot. Zhao Shuzhen for “The Farewell” and Nicole Kidman for “Bombshell” are also on the outside looking in but things could change.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
Rian Johnson, “Knives Out”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”

Notes: Lulu Wang’s screenplay for “The Farewell” may take over the “1917” spot. Olivia Wilde’s “Booksmart” may also have a shot. Both female screenwriters trying to crash the boy’s club.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Anthony McCarten, “The Two Popes”
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, “Joker”
Taika Watiti, “Jojo Rabbit”
Steven Zaillian, “The Irishman”

Notes: Honestly, these are our five. Maybe “Toy Story 4” could sneak in, but we’re confident nothing will change.

EDITING

Thelma Schoonmaker, “The Irishman”
Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, “Ford v Ferrari”
Yang Jin-Mo, “Parasite”
Tom Eagles, “Jojo Rabbit”
Jeff Groth, “Joker”

INTERNATIONAL FILM

“Honeyland” (North Macedonia)
“Les Miserables” (France)
“Pain and Glory” (Spain)
“Parasite” (South Korea)
”Beanpole” (Russia)

Notes: Mati Diop’s “Atlantics” is a major omission, but, having spoken to a few academy voters about this category, you get a sense that Diop’s film is just not as well-liked by voters as it is by critics.

ANIMATED FEATURE

“Frozen II”
“How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”

Notes: “Klaus” and “Abominable” just don’t have as much support as the above five. A fairly weak year in “great” animated works, which makes this category anybody’s to win this year.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“American Factory”
“Apollo 11”
“For Sama”
“Honeyland”
“One Child Nation”

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Roger Deakins, “1917”
Phedon Papamichael, “Ford v Ferrari”
Rodrigo Prieto, “The Irishman”
Robert Richardson, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Lawrence Sher, “Joker”

Notes: Don’t be surprised if Hong Gyeong-Pyo for “Parasite” sneaks in.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dennis Glasser for “1917”
Barbara Ling for “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Lee Ha Jun for “Parasite”
Bob Shaw for “The Irishman”
Ra Vincent for “Jojo Rabbit”

COSTUMES

Ruth E. Carter, “Dolemite Is My Name”
Julian Day, “Rocketman”
Jacqueline Durran, “Little Women”
Arianne Phillips, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell, “The Irishman”

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

“Bombshell”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

ORIGINAL SCORE

Michael Giacchino, “Jojo Rabbit”
Hildur Guđnadóttir, “Joker”
Randy Newman, “Marriage Story”
Thomas Newman, “1917”
John Williams, “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

ORIGINAL SONG

“Glasgow (Wild Rose)” from “Wild Rose”
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from “Rocketman”
“Into the Unknown” from “Frozen II”
“Spirit” from “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” from “Harriet”

VISUAL EFFECTS

“Alita: Battle Angel”
“Avengers: Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

SOUND EDITING

“1917”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“Rocketman”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

SOUND MIXING

“1917”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Rocketman”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

The 2020 Oscar nominations will be announced dark and early at 5 AM PT, 8 AM ET on Monday.