Paramount’s Warner Bros. Deal Could Get $1.3 Billion More Expensive as Judge Sets Worst-Case-Scenario March 2027 Trial

So, the judge in the antitrust suit against Paramount’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery has set the trial for March, rather than the November date Paramount had requested. That is catastrophic news for David Ellison.

The biggest issue will now be the “ticking fee” Paramount would owe Warner Bros. Discovery if the transaction remains unresolved. That would be $1.3 billion by March, to be more precise, with payments beginning October 1. In other words, every additional month of litigation potentially makes the deal dramatically more expensive for Paramount.

Will this increase pressure on Paramount to either renegotiate the transaction, or abandon the merger altogether?

This deal is obviously becoming increasingly difficult to complete legally, and especially politically. Worse, this will all occur after the 2026 midterm elections, potentially putting the case before a very different Congress and political environment.

I wonder if a settlement could still happen before trial, but it would likely require meaningful structural remedies—such as, ahem, selling CNN.

Furthermore, what happens to Warner Bros. if Paramount ultimately walks away? Will Netflix return as a buyer? I’d rather not have that happen—a studio with an actual theatrical commitment like Paramount is the better option. Or maybe Warner will try to revive its earlier plan to separate its entertainment assets from its traditional television/news operations. They could receive substantial compensation if the Paramount deal collapses—many billions—meaning Warner would be substantially better off than it was when Netflix and Paramount tried to acquire it.

Overall, this is turning into a legal and business nightmare for Paramount. That March date? Bad news. That doesn’t mean the merger is necessarily dead, but Ellison might not be able to withstand the financial pressure, and that was the plan all along for these state AGs—make him bleed by the gallons until he quits.