‘Moana’ Could Be Disney’s Next Disaster: $250M Budget, Weak $40M Opening Projection, and 32% Rotten Tomatoes Score

Here’s another Disney live-action remake that might spell disaster for the Mouse House, and quite honestly, I didn’t see it coming.

The “Moana” brand was supposed to be one of Disney’s surest bets. The animated original, released in 2016, grossed $643M worldwide, but became an even bigger hit on streaming, to the point that its sequel, “Moana 2” (2024), crossed the $1 billion mark at the box office.

Now comes the live-action remake, set for release this Friday, which is currently projected to have a limp $40M opening weekend based on ticket sales. It’s a surprising turn of events for Disney, which seemed so confident this would be a hit that, according to Variety, it approved a $250M budget for the film.

More bad news arrived this morning when the review embargo lifted and critics’ scores turned out to be atrocious. Currently, “Moana” sits at 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and 44 on Metacritic. Sure, weak reviews don’t always matter as much when it comes to family films, but the problem is that this one already has troubling tracking, and it could fall flat at the box office this coming weekend.

Disney was so confident in the “Moana” brand that it recently greenlit “Moana 3,” which is currently in development and expected to arrive in 2028.

“Moana,” the live-action one, stars Catherine Lagaʻaia as the titular heroine, with Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui alongside a cast that includes Frankie Adams, Rena Owen, and Alan Tudyk. Based on the reviews, it appears to be a largely faithful, shot-for-shot remake of the animated film.

Disney is coming off the disastrous “Snow White” live-action remake, released in March 2025, which had a similar budget to this “Moana” film and opened with $42M domestically. “Moana” might actually make less money than “Snow White,” which was certainly on nobody’s bingo card.