UPDATE: It keeps getting worse and worse for “Supergirl.” The latest tracking, arriving less than 24 hours after NRG’s forecast, has the film opening in the $45M range on its debut weekend.
EARLIER: Some more bad news for “Supergirl.” According to Matt Belloni, NRG tracking has declined again, and the film is now eyeing around $50M domestic opening weekend. Based on presales, it might even come in lower than that.
Not many tentpole superhero movies open in this range. The best—and most worrisome—comparison would be “The Marvels,” which debuted to $48M in November 2023. “Supergirl” would like nothing more than to distance itself as much as possible from that infamous MCU bomb.
What a way for James Gunn to squash all the momentum built up by “Superman,” which debuted to $125M last summer, and had a budget only slightly higher than “Supergirl.” Gunn assured us that “Superman” cost only a little over $200M, while “Supergirl” reportedly carries a $175M budget. That means the breakeven point for the Craig Gillespie-directed DCU film would likely be around $435M worldwide.
“Supergirl” is squeezed between several major family blockbusters on the release calendar, including “Toy Story 5,” “Minions & Monsters,” and Disney’s live-action “Moana.” However, the main issue surrounding the film is that the marketing campaign simply hasn’t generated much excitement. Reviews remain under embargo until next week.
What surprises me most is that a studio actually believed not only that a “Supergirl” movie warranted a $175M budget, but also that it could somehow turn a profit. In what world is Supergirl worth that kind of budget?
Wouldn’t it be something if “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” “Masters of the Universe,” and “Supergirl” all made less money than indie films like “Backrooms” and “Obsession”? Hell, I’ll even add “Disclosure Day” to the list. For an original, non-IP sci-fi film with a much lower budget than “Supergirl,” Spielberg’s film might end up having a similar domestic opening weekend.
“Supergirl” is directed by Craig Gillespie, who isn’t a bad filmmaker; he’s best known for his highly-stylized work on “I, Tonya,” “Lars and the Real Girl,” “Dumb Money,” and “Cruella.” We’ll see how well “Supergirl” does for his career when it opens on June 26.
The theatrical version runs 108 minutes, so we're talking a nearly 2-hour-10-minute cut of a movie that works because it's lean, and I'm not sure anyone needs that.