UPDATE: The early estimates were wrong. “Thunderbolts” had a rough Sunday, taking in only $18M, which means its 3-day weekend total was actually $74M.
EARLIER: It’s interesting that positive reviews and strong audience scores haven’t made much of a difference for “Thunderbolts.” It has been projected to hit $75M since pre-sales began, and its 3-day total for the weekend will likely land around $76M.
Marvel appears to have hit a plateau with its non-event films. While there’s a core fanbase that can drive opening weekends to around $70–80M, broader success now depends on sustained interest from general audiences throughout the marketing campaign. Relying on reviews and word-of-mouth is no longer enough to elevate these films.
Marvel is now facing the consequences of flooding audiences with an abundance of content during Phase 4, often at the expense of quality. The era when any Marvel film could become a massive box office success—regardless of the lead character—appears to be over.
It certainly didn’t help “Thunderbolts” that “Sinners” is still a very buzzy film. Ryan Coogler’s genre mashup only dropped 25% in its third weekend and is looking at a $34M 3-day tally. Is it any surprise that, internally, Warner Bros. has already planned a Halloween re-release for “Sinners”?
That $70M opening for “Thunderbolts” is a soft debut for a major Marvel release in May. You’ll likely see some writers calling it a “respectable” showing, considering the characters aren’t well known, and I guess that’s the right word to use.
It’s true—most casual viewers aren’t familiar with the characters, aside from Bucky, who still doesn’t have the mainstream appeal of heroes like Iron Man or Spider-Man. This lack of recognition capped the film’s box office potential, even with strong word-of-mouth. Overseas receipts were fairly stagnant, the film bombed in China, and is looking at an international total of $86M by Sunday evening.
The bigger test for Marvel will likely be “Fantastic Four: First Steps” later this summer.
Edward Berger seems to have settled on what comes next. His Lance Armstrong biopic, starring Austin Butler, is now holding casting calls, with production eyed for January.