Best Picture: ‘Anora' vs ‘Conclave' — Who Wins?

Place your bets, and forget about the rest of the field, it’s come down to two films for the best picture Oscar: “Anora” and “Conclave.” Which will come out on top?

If one were to rely solely on stats, which is the preferred method of predicting for many pundits, then “Anora” is winning. The numbers are on its side, and there’s a mathematical inevitability for it being crowned come March 2.

Sean Baker’s film won both the DGA and PGA, and that usually spells success for Oscar glory. In fact, 15 of the last 17 films to have won both PGA and DGA went on to win the best picture Oscar — the only exceptions being “Brokeback Mountain” and “1917.”

Baker’s biggest competitor will be Edward Berger’s “Conclave,” which just won SAG Ensemble honors, and BAFTA’s best film award — the latter is a good indicator that UK Academy voters (over 300 of them) might be leaning more towards Berger’s papal drama. That might not be enough. There are over 10,000 Oscar voters.

It could be seen as a major red flag that Berger was snubbed of a directing nomination by the Academy which further complicates the case for a “Conclave” win. Sure, Ben Affleck was also snubbed by the Academy for his directing “Argo,” but the film still ended up winning DGA and PGA.

Maybe the best and most recent example we can look back on occurred in 2017 when “The Shape of Water” took the DGA and PGA. Much like “Conclave,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won BAFTA and the SAG Ensemble with its director (Martin McDonagh) snubbed by the Academy. ‘Shape’ ended up winning.

We might have a genuine Best Picture race in our hands, or it’s very possible we’re just trying to make up one to keep the excitement going. I’m opting to go with the latter. “Anora” will win best picture come the evening of March 2.