Oscars: Best Picture Race Heats Up With ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Marty Supreme’ Leading the Pack

I haven’t done one of these in a while. Let’s tackle the latest odds in the Best Picture race. Hard to believe, but we’re only three months away from Oscar nominations being announced.

A few contenders have screened since our last update in September. We can probably scratch Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue,” which had its world premiere at AFI a few weeks ago. The reviews haven’t been good — that 55 on Metacritic sticks out like a sore thumb. “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” also failed to ignite critics and audiences — it’s practically out of the race now.

Meanwhile, “Wicked: For Good” has been screening for critics and pundits alike. So far, so good. The general consensus seems to be that if you were a fan of the first one — much like the Academy was — then you’ll most likely embrace the sequel. There are even some Oscar “experts” predicting Ariana Grande as the supporting actress frontrunner. Move over, Teyana Taylor?

Then there’s Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” which I finally caught up with this morning, though the reviews embargo doesn’t lift until December 1. Along with “One Battle After Another,” it’s probably the most ambitious studio film I’ve seen this year. Timothée Chalamet might very well win Best Actor. Oh, and that Best Picture nomination is practically locked (although it might not win).

So, what’s left to be screened? Not much, really. Only James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” which is aiming for the stars again with its 195-minute runtime. It’s by far the lengthiest film among this year’s contenders. Can Cameron do it again? Oscar voters have proven in the past to be “Avatards” — the actual term fans use — and there’s no reason to believe they’ll bail on this franchise when the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Another interesting development since I last wrote about the Oscar race: Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” has faltered post-Venice, and Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” it turns out, is in fact a contender. After its Venice world premiere, we weren’t really sure what to make of del Toro’s film, but the buzz has grown since then, and reviews improved outside Europe. It’s become Netflix’s top priority this awards season.

“Sinners” is somewhere in there as well, checking off nearly every box the Academy seems desperate to fill these days. It’s a rare blend of commercial success and critical acclaim and tackles weighty, timely themes rooted in racial injustice — exactly the kind of topical resonance voters have gravitated toward in the post-“Moonlight” era. Hell, even the semi-experimental “Nickel Boys” got a Best Picture nomination last year — something that would have seemed unimaginable 10 years ago.

It makes perfect sense for Gold Derby’s experts to still have “One Battle After Another” at #1, as seen below. It has glowing reviews to its name and, compared to some of the other failed Oscar bait this fall, a box office nearing $200M worldwide. Warner Bros wants us to forget about its costly budget ($150M? $175M) and most probably will if it ends up receiving an Oscar nom tally in the double digits.

“One Battle After Another” isn’t just a frontrunner because of the stats — it also feels like a film that taps into the current cultural mood. Some have called it “the defining film of our times.” Hyperbole? Maybe. However, all the op-eds it’s generated since release imply it’s very much about the state of America right now, delivered in a way that’s accessible, emotional, and entertaining.

Which brings us to the best narrative going around this awards season. Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar, and the narrative of finally honoring him feels similar to when the Academy decided it was time to give Scorsese his statuette for “The Departed.” Oscar history is full of those “it’s their turn” moments, and if the campaign plays into that, don’t be surprised if PTA ends up the sentimental choice.

As for its top competition? PTA’s film might very well end up in a two-way fight against Chloe Zhao’s “Hamnet,” which has been earning great reviews but, more importantly, sweeping audience awards at the fall fests, including the coveted TIFF People’s Choice Award. Other wins came from San Diego, Virginia, Mill Valley, Middleburg, Valladolid, and London. Jessie Buckley is also the frontrunner to win Best Actress — that might be the one Oscar “Hamnet” feels truly destined to take home.

So, how many movies is that? By my count, seven, if you include “Fire and Ash,” that currently stand at the top of the heap. The rest of the field will very likely be composed of two Cannes standouts (“Sentimental Value” and “It Was Just an Accident”).

These are our nine main contenders. The last remaining slot will be a cage fight. Will it be Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” an effective George Clooney vehicle that has earned mixed-to-positive responses from critics but seems to have been a hit with industry voters? Netflix has another potential contender with “Train Dreams,” a dreamlike meditation that sneaks up on you, but will its esoteric qualities be too much for voters? How about Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia,” still named by some as a possibility — good film, but not as ambitious nor searing as his previously nominated work? Word is still uncertain about Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” which screened at NYFF to good but not great reviews. Or maybe we’ll see a record three international films crack the top 10, with “No Other Choice” and “The Secret Agent” continuing to gain steam.

So, yes, nomination ballots aren’t due until January 16. That’s a little over two months from now — an eternity in awards campaigning. Every season has its scandals, hiccups, and unexpected turns. Drama is part of the game, whether anyone wants it or not.