A big question surrounding this year’s Best Actor race may have been answered at the New York Film Festival. Timothée Chalamet, at 29, has officially climbed to #1 on Gold Derby’s experts chart for his performance in “Marty Supreme.” The two-time Oscar nominee now finds himself as the frontrunner.
The ironic twist? Most of the “experts” crowning Chalamet the frontrunner haven’t actually seen “Marty Supreme.” The buzz has been built almost entirely around social media reactions. Still, that hasn’t stopped the machinery of awards season from doing what it does best: hyping up a narrative.
For weeks, Gold Derby’s Best Actor top five barely moved in terms of who was in it. The same names, shuffled around week to week. Then Leonardo DiCaprio rocketed to the top the moment “One Battle After Another” screened.
Meanwhile, Dwayne Johnson’s awards hopes took a nosedive. “The Smashing Machine” opened to lackluster box office numbers, and those once-glowing Venice notices quickly cooled once the broader press weighed in. Whatever momentum Johnson had going into the fall seems to have evaporated just as quickly. He might not even get nominated now.
And then came the NYFF curveball. “Marty Supreme” was shown as a surprise work-in-progress screening — reviews embargoed, cut unfinished — and yet the social media reaction was enough to shift the entire awards conversation overnight. Suddenly, Chalamet’s third nomination feels inevitable, and for the first time this season, he’s not just part of the conversation; he is the conversation.
In a more balanced world, Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) would also be in that conversation. Both deliver some of their finest work in smaller, under-seen films that have yet to make the rounds. Whether they can build momentum as the season unfolds remains to be seen, but they deserve to.
The rest of the field feels soft. Johnson’s chances appear to be fading, while Michael B. Jordan’s dual performance in “Sinners” might squeeze into the final five. Jeremy Allen White’s turn as Bruce Springsteen in ‘Deliver Me From Nowhere’ is also lingering somewhere in the mix.
Of course, it’s still early, but that said, right now, all signs point in one direction: Chalamet. Without any actual reviews, is it really his race to lose?
