‘The Smashing Machine’ Eyeing $9-$10M Debut — Can Dwayne Johnson Actually Get Oscar Nominated?

No surprise, “Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” is set to earn $40M at the domestic box office this weekend. Internationally, the film is expected to draw in a further $8–10M from 50 markets, bringing its worldwide debut to around $55M. Presales domestically are already said to be over $20M. The film will have no Thursday previews and is considered a one-weekend-only play.

Swift’s film has reportedly taken over PLF screens from both the Dwayne Johnson–led “The Smashing Machine” and the still-performing “One Battle After Another.” Instead, it will be sharing those premium formats with the “Avatar: The Way of Water” re-release, which is projected to bring in $3–4M, boosted by control of roughly 90% of IMAX screens.

Speaking of, “The Smashing Machine” isn’t doing so well in tracking, looking to debut with $9–10M, while “Good Boy,” a dog-led horror movie whose poster and trailer went viral last month, is projected in the low single-digit millions.

Reviews have been fine for ‘Smashing’ (69 on Metacritic), most citing Johnson’s performance as the main draw. What seems to impress most is the fact that Johnson finally looks like he’s trying to act instead of simply posing. Watching him strain toward seriousness—awkward, lumbering, oddly touching—is the real spectacle here.

Will this translate into an Oscar nomination for Johnson? It’s too early to tell, but this year’s Best Actor category is in need of contenders, with only Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Jeremy Allen White (“Deliver Me From Nowhere”), and yes, Johnson having generated any legitimate Oscar buzz. Many pundits also have Michael B. Jordan cracking the top five for his dual performance in “Sinners.”

In a just world, Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”) and Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) would be part of the conversation—and maybe they eventually will be, as more people start catching up with their respective films.

So, it’s a weak field, and yes, Johnson is currently in the top 5, but I can also easily see him getting snubbed as there currently isn’t that much passion for the film he stars in. What seems to be pushing him forward is the narrative behind him.

The one quite that seems to keep making the rounds is Johnson admitting he’s been “pigeonholed” in his career with empty action vehicles:

A lot of times, it’s harder for us—or at least for me—sometimes to know what you’re capable of when you’ve been pigeonholed.”

That viral moment at Venice — Johnson tearfully “reinventing” himself at the premiere of “The Smashing Machine” — was framed as a story of stereotyping in Hollywood. It’s a familiar strategy. Brendan Fraser cried at Venice and walked away with an Oscar. Johnson cried at Venice hoping for the same trajectory. But Fraser’s win came with the built-in narrative of a long exile and return to serious acting. Johnson? He’s never left.

Puck’s Matt Belloni made a good point recently. The reality is harder to ignore: a career carefully built around maximum paydays. The standing ovation that night at Venice doesn’t erase the track record. With Ari Emanuel in his corner, Johnson bulldozed into every blockbuster lane he could find: “Jungle Cruise,” “G.I. Joe: Retaliation,” “Rampage,” “Red Notice,” “San Andreas,” “Tooth Fairy,” “Central Intelligence,” two “Jumanjis,” multiple “Fast & Furiouses,” and most recently “Red One.” And of course, the “Black Adam” gamble, where he tried to position himself as the center of DC. Now it’s glasses, a slimmer frame, and hushed talk of “art” in Venice.

More problematic for Johnson, Disney plans to roll out their live-action “Moana” trailer in the middle of awards season, almost certainly attached to “Avatar: Fire and Ash.” That timing risks undoing Johnson’s carefully constructed image shift. Voters will be reminded not of an underdog fighting typecasting, but of the reliable star of “paycheck cinema” they’ve seen for almost three decades.