Here we are in mid-October, and most of this year’s major Oscar contenders have already either premiered at festivals or been released theatrically. Still looming on the horizon are two heavy hitters: James Cameron’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and John M. Chu’s “Wicked For Good.” And then there’s Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” which was surprise-screened to rapturous reactions at NYFF. The review embargo on the film is still in place, likely until December, making it something of a wild card in this increasingly crowded awards race.
At this point, four films have clearly emerged as major Best Picture contenders: Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” and Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” Those same four filmmakers are considered near-locks for Best Director. Just ask the experts over at Gold Derby, who currently have all of them sitting comfortably in their top five.
“Is this PTA’s year?” That’s the question pundits have been asking since “One Battle After Another” first premiered. It would be a little odd to see Zhao win again so soon after “Nomadland,” and Trier and Coogler, though respected, may not have the same Academy narrative momentum. In fact, Anderson’s biggest competition might not even come from those three—it could come from Jafar Panahi.
Panahi’s “It Was Just An Accident,” a secretly made anti-government film shot in Iran, has the kind of story the Academy loves to rally around. If the film lands a Best Picture nomination, a Best Director nod could easily follow. The narrative is there for Panahi to surprise.
Honestly, for now, this is a six-way race for the nomination; no other filmmaker comes close to contending with the ones mentioned — Gold Derby has their 7-10 slots filled by Kathryn Bigelow (“A House of Dynamite”), Park Chan-wook (“No Other Choice”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Bugonia”), and John M. Chu (“Wicked For Good”).”
However, let’s be honest, it’s Anderson’s Oscar to lose. The man has never won, despite three directing nominations and five more in the screenplay categories. He’s arguably the greatest living filmmaker without a golden statuette. “One Battle After Another” is his most accessible and widely seen film to date. Critics are firmly in his corner, and that support isn’t going anywhere.
There are some parallels to Martin Scorsese finally winning his first Oscar in 2007 for “The Departed” at age 64. Paul Thomas Anderson is younger, at 55, but no less deserving for his staggering body of work. Both ‘One Battle’ and “The Departed” were accessible films that left the Academy little choice but to recognize their achievements.
Even with the film’s underwhelming box office numbers, PTA’s momentum feels unstoppable. This could very well be the coronation moment fans have been waiting for.
Cory Finley, a talented filmmaker, has directed three films so far: "Thoroughbreds" (2017), "Bad Education” (2020), and "Landscape with Invisible Hand.”