I waited to publish this piece until “One Battle After Another” would officially top Gold Derby’s Best Picture odds. That moment has arrived — and with it, so has a sense of inevitability. At this point, I just can’t see the film losing. It feels like a slam dunk.
Paul Thomas Anderson is poised to finally win his first Oscar, an overdue coronation for a filmmaker long considered one of America’s greatest. Leonardo DiCaprio is locked for a nomination and could very well snag his second statuette — unless Timothée Chalamet pulls off something spectacular in “Marty Supreme.”
Anderson’s ensemble is a treasure trove of Oscar-worthy turns. I can see three, maybe even four other “OBAA” actors making the cut. Sean Penn could very well take home his third Oscar, his first in the Supporting category, while Benicio del Toro seems destined to join him as a nominee there. Regina Hall has two barnburner scenes that could push her into Supporting Actress, while Teyana Taylor, despite limited screen time, makes a vivid impression and could sneak in. The only performance that feels less assured is newcomer Chase Infiniti, playing DiCaprio’s daughter — she’s fine, but not quite at the level of the rest of the cast.
Beyond acting, “OBAA” is formidable across the board. Johnny Greenwood’s minimalist, percussion-tinged piano score is the current frontrunner for Best Score. The film will be ultra-competitive in Cinematography, Editing, Sound, and Casting. At this point, the question isn’t whether it wins Best Picture, but how many Oscars it takes home in total.
If there’s one film that could somehow derail “OBAA,” it’s Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” Yes, its ending is transcendent and packs an emotional punch, but the film overall has been overpraised. I doubt the Academy wants to reward Zhao again so soon after “Nomadland” — especially since that film has, shall we say, not exactly aged gracefully.
Then there’s Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which checks just about every box AMPAS is eager to fill these days. It’s a commercial hit, a critical darling, and it grapples with themes of racial injustice and historical trauma. It’s topical in the same way “Moonlight” or “12 Years a Slave” were, and that resonance will carry it. But its third-act pivot into horror is also its weakest section, and the Academy almost never rewards horror.
Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” is another strong contender. After its rapturous Cannes premiere and glowing reviews, it feels like a lock for a Best Picture nomination. Renate Reinsve is being praised for a career-best turn, and voters who prefer something more subtle, international, and emotionally delicate will gravitate toward it. Still, it doesn’t have the momentum to win.
And then there’s Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident,” a Cannes Palme d’Or winner that has surged in cultural relevance amid ongoing turmoil in Iran. If nominated, it would become the first Iranian film ever to crack Best Picture. The fact that Iran declined to submit it in the International Feature category only adds to its narrative — this is pure political urgency fused with artistic merit, and the Academy loves a story like that.
Netflix isn’t sitting this race out. They’re pushing two titles: Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly,” a George Clooney-led insider-Hollywood drama that voters may find irresistible, and Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite,” which drew a polarized response at NYFF but could sneak into the top ten on the strength of Bigelow’s name and comeback narrative.
We’re four months away from nomination ballots (due January 16), and yes — that’s an eternity in awards campaigning. Scandals, narratives, and twists always emerge. But at this moment, PTA has the clear frontrunner, and every other film is playing catch-up.
One final note: the only real head-scratcher in Gold Derby’s top ten right now is “Bugonia” (#7). It’s an entertaining diversion, sure, but hardly Best Picture material. Yorgos Lanthimos has made far greater films, and reviews for this one have been lukewarm at best. I just don’t see it happening.
Sight unseen, still unscreened, “Marty Supreme,” “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” and “Wicked For Good” loom on the horizon. Any could shake up the race if they deliver: “Marty Supreme” might be the biggest challenger, Cameron’s sequel could dazzle but faces yet again skepticism, and “Wicked For Good” could ride mainstream appeal into contention.
For now, this is “OBAA”’s race to lose.
