Oscars: ‘Anora' & ‘Conclave' Still the Frontrunners; THR Says ‘September 5' A “Lock" for Best Picture

It’s Thanksgiving and all the films that are potential Best Picture contenders have screened for AMPAS, guild, and select press. Granted, we’re still not entirely sure who the winner will be, that’s still very much up for grabs, but the pretenders are starting to reveal themselves.

The last movie to screen was James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” — the film itself has been politely approved of but it sounds more like an acting showcase than a best picture contender. Regardless, with the exception of ‘Complete Unknown,’

I’ve now seen everything that needs to be seen, “Anora” and “Conclave” are still the top two films to beat — nothing else comes close in my estimation. This is how I currently have the race ranked:

1) “Anora”
2) “Conclave”
3) “The Brutalist”
4) “Emilia Perez”
5) “Dune: Part II”
6) “A Real Pain”
7) “Sing Sing”
8) “Wicked”
9) “Nickel Boys”
10) “A Complete Unknown”

So, I just watched “September 5,” and that’s the same week THR’s Scott Feinberg wrote it’s a lock for a Best Picture nomination — this has me completely puzzled. Then again, Feinberg speaks to way more Oscar voters than I do so maybe he’s onto something. Who really knows.

Yes, Feinberg is saying that “September 5” is one of six locked films bound to get Best Picture nominated; the other ones are “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez,” and “Wicked.”

Where’s “Dune: Part II”? Also, I don’t believe that “Wicked” has locked up a nomination — It’s currently my #8. Sure, it’s going to make a boatload of money, but the reviews are not all raves, and there’s even some who outright despise it.

Back to “September 5,” despite the film not really having much traction at the moment — Feinberg has repeatedly stated that it’s the film to beat for Best Picture, and I just don’t buy it. It’s a watchable, well-made love letter to journalism, but it barely covers new ground — we’ve seen films like this an inordinate amount of times before.

Last month, “September 5” landed at Paramount Pictures in a $10M deal. The film will hit theaters in December with a “major awards campaign behind it” via Paramount.

Sarsgaard, Benesch and John Magaro star in “September 5,” the third feature from director Tim Fehlbaum (“The Colony” and “Hell”), a dramatic thriller about ABC Sports’ coverage of the 1972 Munich Olympics terrorist attack in which Palestinian militants took hostage Israeli athletes. The story is told from the perspective of the broadcaster

THR has been hyping up “September 5” as the real deal for months now. The film didn’t screen at TIFF and was overshadowed by more buzzy titles at Venice but had a great showing at Telluride. It didn’t screen at either NYFF or London.

Regardless, now that every contender has screened, it’s much easier to surmise September 5’s chances, and I just can’t see it cracking the final 10 nominees.