Just a week ago, Best Supporting Actress had the most comfortably placed frontrunner of any category. When Universal decided to pull Michelle Williams out and campaign her as Lead Actress, a total and utter unpredictability showed up.
This is easily the hardest category of nominees to slot/predict this year. Williams would have probably won, but now it’s a free-for-all with some predicting Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) as the new frontrunner. I don’t buy it.
For some reason, Variety’s Clayton Davis has the three “Women Talking” actresses in the #1, #2, and #3 slots in his predictions. Give me a break. My current belief is that Sarah Polley’s film will not be everyone’s cup of tea and that some, or many, Academy voters will be rebelling against it.
There are also two “Everything Everywhere All At Once” actresses vying for a nomination: Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis. I’m inclined to think the latter, a well-respected industry veteran, has the better shot — she also gives the better performance in the film.
Since the summer I’ve been saying that Netflix will be campaigning hard for Janelle Monae (“Glass Onion”). She’s currently in my top five. Ditto TAR’s Nina Hoss, an exceptional actress in an exceptional movie.
All of this to say that I do believe the Best Supporting Actress winner has not been screened yet … Watch out for Jean Smart in “Babylon.” She steals the show according to those who’ve seen it. Smart registered major points during last Spring’s test-screening as a showbiz journalist who helps silent a star (Margot Robbie) learn to act with spoken words.
Here’s how someone (who saw “Babylon”) described Smart’s performance to me:
She plays Elinor St. John, the diction coach from “Singing in the Rain,” but also has another gig as the powerful editor-in-chief of an influential film magazine. She helps make Margot Robbie’s character less trashy and more star-ready for Hollywood by educating her on how to talk and dress for the part. It’s a supporting, but very showy role and every scene with her is incredibly written and acted. She has this big speech with Brad Pitt’s character that is a real tour-de-force moment in the movie.”
FRONTRUNNERS
Jean Smart (Babylon)
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Nina Hoss (TAR)
Janelle Monae (Glass Onion)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
POSSIBILITIES: Claire Foy (Women Talking), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Hong Chau (The Whale), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Judith Ivey (Women Talking), Dakota Johnson (Cha Cha Real Smooth).