Most Experts Have ‘The Fabelmans’ as Their Best Picture Frontrunner

Practically every pundit has Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” as their #1 horse in the Best Picture race. Call it the de facto frontrunner since, quite frankly, there is no other movie that has stood out as an ideal major contender. Maybe that’ll change when Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” is screened in December, but, for now, it’s all about Spielberg and his film.

Here’s how the Gold Derby polling has it so far:

The above is based on around 20 experts/pundits Gold Derby has assembled.

My take is simple: “The Fabelmans” is indeed top of the class at the moment, although I’m not quite sure if there is a wide enough audience for it at the box-office.

This is where “Top Gun: Maverick” comes into play, which is my current #2. I mean, what else would you have in second place? “Everything Everywhere All At Once” will polarize older voters, the visually drab and stagey “Women Talking” is not going to connect with a majority of voters, “TAR” (the critical darling of the year) is too cold and Kubrickian to connect with wide appeal.

What we’re left with is “The Fabelmans,” Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees Inisherin” (which everyone I spoke to loves), the still unseen “Babylon,” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” These are the four movies that I think will be most competitive for Best Picture.

We have 7 almost sure-things. However, the last three spots are wide open. I’m not entirely sure how “Empire of Light,” and “The Whale” are in Gold Derby’s top 10. Maybe with an update they fall down. “The Son” probably has a better shot.

I just can’t believe a scenario where “Elvis” doesn’t make it into this year’s Best Picture lineup, so that’s my #8. Baz Luhrmann’s film has a glowing box-office intake and more-than-decent critical support.

Don’t pay attention to the 64 it has on Metacritic, Luhrmann’s “Moulin Rouge” had a 66 on MC in 2001 and still wound up being one of the five BP nominees. Plus, if our summer movie critics poll is any indication, plenty of critics do like it. It finished second, just behind ‘Maverick.’

For the final two spots, I’m thinking it will be between four films.

“Glass Onion” is definitely a contender. Despite it being slightly inferior to the original, I figure it could be in the running, especially with this being l such a weak year for American moviemaking. Netflix just needs to go fully on-board a theatrical release with this one.

“She Said” is, by all accounts, going to be well-received at NYFF next week, but it’s going to need consistently great reviews to fully separate itself from inevitable comparisons to “Spotlight.”

I’ve almost given up on “The Whale” and “Empire of Light,” but not entirely on Florian Zeller’s “The Son.” What many pundits and film journalists fail to report is that the film is well-liked by Academy voters. Since its TIFF premiere, I’ve spoken to five people, all Oscar voters, who just didn’t understand why the film was so critically maligned. I don’t either. It’s not a bad film.

As for James Cameron and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” the movie will have to exceed the ridiculously high expectations it’s been building up. What made the first film so unique was that it kickstarted a 3D trend with its incredible visuals. What’s going to be the big draw with this sequel? Will it be as influential and shapeshift the entire industry like the first one did? Never doubt Cameron.

Best Picture [10.02.22]

1) The Fabelmans
2) Babylon
3) Top Gun: Maverick
4) The Banshees of Inisherin
5) TAR
6) Everything Everywhere All At Once
7) Women Talking
8) Elvis
9) She Said
10) Glass Onion