Variety’s Clayton Davis has updated his latest predictions, with Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” as his current Oscar frontrunner.
‘Fabelmans’ currently has an 83 on Metacritic, based on 19 reviews. It’s definitely good enough to win the big prize since this is Spielberg and it’s a very inside-the-industry type of film. Kind of like Sam Mendes’ “Empire of Light,” which Davis smartly has as his #7.
‘Fabelmans’ will also, probably, win the TIFF audience award on Sunday. TIFF head Cameron Bailey seemed to really be pushing for that to occur all week. Rigged? Somewhat, but, even if it wasn’t, there isn’t much competition against Spielberg’s film — maybe ‘Banshees,’ ‘Empire of Light,’ or ‘Glass Onion’ could surprise.
Curiously enough, Davis has “Women Talking” as his #2 which, to my eyes at least, is completely absurd. Sarah Polley’s film will need quite the traction to make it into the final 10 nominees. Reviews will have to be much better to nab that elusive Best Picture nomination. Maybe the writeups will get better, but many of the people I spoke to at TIFF, some of which were Oscar voters, weren’t so keen on the film.
Save for “Women Talking” and “The Son,” I agree with most of Davis’ choices. My current 10 nominees are “The Fabelmans,” “Babylon,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “TÁR,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Empire of Light,” “Elvis,” “Glass Onion,” and “Avatar: The Way of Water.”
I wouldn't call this film great — it stops short of that because of how neatly it resolves itself — but I'll give Rock his due here: this is much better than his previous directorial effort, "Top Five."