Variety’s Clayton Davis has published his early Oscar frontrunners. This is purely based on what he’s seen and heard.
He ranks 50 films that, he believes, have the best shot at Best Picture, including the 10 that he sees as the most likely nominees. It’s all fun and games since it’s way too early to truly predict this kind of stuff, especially when 80% of the films on his list have yet to be seen.
According to Clayton, Steven Spielberg’s “The Fablemans” will take the top honors next March at the Kodak theater:
WINNER: “The Fabelmans”
“Babylon,” “Bardo,” “Empire of Light,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Son,” “TÁR,” “Till,” “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking”
Notice his placement of Ruben Ostlund’s “Triangle of Sadness.” Yes, it won the Palme d’Or and yes I loved that movie, but it might prove to be too divisive.
He also includes Chinonye Chukwu’s “Till” on his nominees list. That one’s practically a cinch for TIFF. Slated for a primo October 21st release date, Chukwu’s film is a biopic tackling Mamie Till-Mobley (Danielle Deadwyler), an American educator and activist who pursues justice after the 1955 lynching of her 14-year-old son Emmett Till (Jalyn Hall).
I glazed through the other 40 films Davis included. Not many surprises or films that I didn’t mention before, safe for a few that were not on my radar: “A Man Called Oto”, “Golda”, “The Burial”, and “Raymond and Ray.”