Best Picture 2023: Second Round of Predictions [Oscars]

In my second instalment of what will be a monthly series, I take a look at the state of next year’s Best Picture race.

We are almost halfway done with the movie year, and there have only been two films released so far, although one of them a long shot, that have had people touting possible Best Picture vibes: The Daniel’s “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and Joseph Kosinski’s “Top Gun: Maverick.”

A surprising summer development has been the traction of “Top Gun: Maverick,” a critically-acclaimed action movie that some are projecting will reach the $500 million mark at the domestic box-office. A success like this is the kind that the industry desperately wants more of — critics and industry supporting a blockbuster juggernaut that stars the biggest movie star in the world is.

Don’t ask me about “Elvis.” I really liked Baz Luhrmann’s musical biopic, I thought it was a more artfully accomplished film than “Bohemian Rhapsody.” But will it make a lot of money? Will critics be kinder to it than ‘Rhapsody’? It’s unpredictable. Austin Butler is fantastic and, really, just the story of Elvis Presley’s rise and fall is a fascinating one to watch unfold onscreen.

I would think most Oscar watchers have come to the conclusion that Robert Eggers’ well-reviewed “The Northman” will probably not make it as one the ten nominated films. Eggers’ film has had a lackluster box-office and its inaccessibly bleak style will be a noticeable issue for many voters. I’ve taken it off the list of contenders.

We’ve amassed 23 obvious contenders right below. I imagine more than half of these will be taken off by the end of September.

ALREADY SEEN CONTENDERS

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Joseph Kosinski)
”Elvis” (Baz Luhrmann)
”Everything Everywhere All At Once (The Daniels)
“Cha Cha Real Smooth (Cooper Raiff)

FALL FEST PREMIERES

”Bardo” (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu)
“Empire of Light” (Sam Mendes)
“Women Talking” (Sarah Polley)
“The Whale” (Darren Aronofsky)
“Tar” (Todd Field)
“Banshees of Inisherin” (Martin McDonagh)
“Don’t Worry Darling” (Olivia Wilde)
“Thirteen Lives” (Ron Howard)
“The Son” (Florian Zeller)
“She Said” (Maria Schrader)
“White Noise” (Noah Baumbach)
“The Good Nurse” (Tobias Lindholm)

NOT SCREENING UNTIL NOV/DEC

“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Martin Scorsese)
“Babylon” (Damien Chazelle)
“The Killer” (David Fincher)
“The Fablemans” (Steven Spielberg)
“Avatar 2” (James Cameron)
“Rustin” (George C. Wolfe)
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody” (Kasi Lemmons)

Kelly Reichardt’s ”Showing Up” was screened at Cannes to excellent reviews, but its muted/minimalist vibe is bound to make it remain a critic’s film through and through.

Wes Anderson’s ”Asteroid City” had been relegated to 2023. Berlin? Cannes?

Yorgos Lanthimos “Poor Things” is contemplating its fall gameplan as we speak. There’s been a strange silence around that movie. Has it also been pushed back to next year?

There’s also the inevitability that something from Cannes could sneak in there ala “Parasite,” “Drive My Car,” and “Amour.” This year, if another South Korean sensation could emerge, it would be Park Chan-Wook‘s “Decision to Leave.”

Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” is currently set for a 2023 release, but that could rapidly change. Its production wrapped during the final weeks of May, which gives Scott 7 months to put this one in the can for a December release.

Am I missing any additional titles? Some off-the-radar films are bound to sneak in within the coming months.