A major update has been done on the Gold Derby charts. Again, these are fairly accurate rankings and probably the same ten nominees that I would predict as of today, but maybe not in the same order. Obviously, some things will change in the coming days and weeks to come.
Gold Derby’s latest pooled Oscar predictions, from its leading 40-odd “experts,” has “The Whale,” for the first time, falling out of the top 10. “The Woman King” has replaced it at the #10 spot.
Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” (#8) will have its review embargo lifted on Friday and that means it’ll probably fall a spot or two due to the impending, and inevitable, mixed reviews it will be receiving.
Today’s reviews for “Avatar: The Way of Water” surprised many who expected far more glowing plaudits being dished out towards James Cameron’s epic. I’m not ready to say it is a lock for Best Picture, but it’s definitely nearing that status. It’s too big, too popular and too important to be ignored.
The actual locks are “The Fabelmans,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “TÁR,” and “Elvis.”
Notice how I didn’t include “Women Talking.” Maybe it will get a BP nomination when all is said and done, but I’m not ready to agree with the general consensus on Sarah Polley’s film. I’ve spoken to too many Oscar voters who didn’t like the film and I just have this creeping sense that it’ll turn out being the one Oscar snub that’ll have film twitter in full-scale meltdown mode (or, at least I hope that to be the case).
GD’s #11-20 are just as interesting to decipher.
You have “The Whale” going down the ranking on a near weekly basis. Then there’s Rian Johnson’s “Glass Onion,” which is again in the same awards position as its predecessor, 2019’s “Knives Out” — on the edge of a nomination, close, but no cigar. Maybe it could take the place of “Babylon,” if Chazelle’s movie does continue to lose momentum.
Then, because of the unusual nature of this year’s lineup of Oscar contenders, you have an odd bunch following Johnson’s movie: “She Said,” “Triangle of Sadness” and “RRR.” That’s right SS Rajamouli’s “RRR” has defied the odds and is at #15 on the Gold Derby list. What a truly astounding narrative that is taking shape in regards to this 3-hour Indian action musical.
Do I believe that “RRR” has a shot a squeezing into the final ten? You bet I do. Critics are pushing this one hard and its accessibility, it’s a very easy watch, is an absolute positive when it comes to Oscar voting.
Edward Berger seems to have settled on what comes next. His Lance Armstrong biopic, starring Austin Butler, is now holding casting calls, with production eyed for January.